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Posts Tagged ‘spy’

Hulbert On The Fed, Rate Hikes & Stock Market; A Response

January 30th, 2015

Interest Rate HikeGary Tanashian:  Mark Hulbert has a piece this morning at MarketWatch in which he de-correlates the first Fed interest rate hike from any supposedly corresponding stock market movements.  I agree with some but not all of what he writes.  Let’s take it a chunk at a time. Read more…

Economy, Government, Markets, Stocks, Today's Top News

Market Scenarios: Winners And Losers

January 30th, 2015

Stock MarketsChris Ciovacco:  The slow growth/low inflation story gained additional traction Tuesday when durable goods orders came in well below expectations. From The Wall Street Journal:

U.S. businesses broadly cut capital spending in the final months of 2014, raising red flags about the economy’s ability to sustain momentum amid troubles around the globe. Read more…

Bonds, Currency, Economy, Investing, Stocks

End Of The Gold Bear?

January 16th, 2015

Gold Bear Gold Bull:  Bear markets end with extreme bearish sentiment but positive price action is needed before a trend change can be confirmed. That can include (among other things) breaking downtrends, breaking resistance and breaking the pattern of lower lows and lower highs. There have been positive developments for precious metals beneath the surface but Read more…

Gold, Investing, Markets, Precious Metals, Today's Top News

Gold Breaks Above Key 200 Day Moving Average; Things to come

January 15th, 2015

goldJeb Handwerger:  For weeks I have been predicting that precious metals and the junior gold miners would bottom and outperform in January.  Now gold is breathtakingly breaking above the key 200 day moving average and breaking four month highs as the World looks to gold as a safe haven. Read more…

Gold, Investing, Mining, Precious Metals

Big Picture Views

January 14th, 2015

Stock Market WatchGary Tanashian:  With all the hype and noise built in to daily and weekly market management, sometimes it is worthwhile to dial out, calm things down and touch base with markets on the big picture.  Here are views on various markets (with limited commentary) Read more…

Banking, Currency, Emerging Markets, Gold, Investing, Precious Metals

The Stock Market’s Next Big Obsession

January 12th, 2015

Wall StreetChris Ciovacco:  Over the past several months, Europe has been dealing with low inflation and the possible threat of deflation. The market will be paying close attention between now and the next European Central Bank (ECB) statement. Read more…

Europe, Investing, Markets, Stocks, Today's Top News

How Fear Around The World Influences The Stock market

December 26th, 2014

FearChris Ciovacco:  While there are numerous reasons for recent volatility in asset prices, the market has primarily focused on concerns related to economic weakness in Europe, the possibility of a widespread Ebola outbreak, and the Federal Reserve. The chart below shows the performance of stocks relative to the VIX Fear Index Read more…

Economy, Europe, Investing, Markets, Stocks

Can You Really Call This Bearish?

November 30th, 2014

Price Increase soar upChris Ciovacco:  Strongest Six Months In A Decade.  It is difficult to imagine a new bear market starting when the economy is growing and the technicals are favorable. Tuesday’s GDP report showed the U.S. economy is coming off the strongest six months of growth in a decade. Read more…

Bonds, Investing Guide, Markets, Today's Top News

Breadth Divergence: Are The Bulls Missing This?

November 21st, 2014

Bull and BearChris Ciovacco:  Yesterday, we covered an analysis about a potentially bullish signal in market breadth. A common form of feedback was: Read more…

Bonds, Markets, Technical Trading

Hidden Government Program: “Office Of Population Affairs”

August 6th, 2014

Population-Control-Public-Domain-300x300Michael Snyder: Did you know that the federal government has an “Office of Population Affairs”?  I didn’t realize this either until someone sent me a link to their website.  The Office of Population Affairs operates under the umbrella of the Department of Health & Human Services, Read more…

Defense, Government, Healthcare, Politics, World News

The Government Trolls The Internet?

July 17th, 2014

Troll-Warning-Photo-by-Gil-300x300Michael Snyder: We have all run into them.  All over the Internet, there are horrible trolls that seem to delight in making life miserable for other people.  But the worst trolls of all are the government trolls. Read more…

Defense, Europe, Government, Technology

4 Financial Resolutions for 2013

January 2nd, 2013

This is the time of year for making New Year’s resolutions. And I have four that are guaranteed to make your portfolio bigger, fatter and wider a year from Read more…

Uncategorized

Why This Earnings Season Could Be A Game Changer (C, KO, IBM, INDEXSP:.INX, SPY)

October 18th, 2012

Mike Burnick: Earnings season always adds an extra dose of volatility to the markets. But as third-quarter profit reports begin coming in fast and furious this week there is a lot more riding on results than usual. Read more…

Earnings, ETF, Markets

European Default Inevitable — Sell Your Gold?

October 7th, 2011

In the prequel to this article (European Default Inevitable — Sell Your Gold?), I discussed the fact that safe-haven-seeking investors could be in for a surprise when they run to buy gold after a Greek default and find huge sellers in Read more…

ETF, Mutual Fund, Uncategorized

The Stocks & Commodity Technical trading Outlook Part I

June 13th, 2011

The coming summer should be exciting for traders! While summer trading generally tends to be slow, this one could be different. A large number of other professional traders I talk with are all feeling the tension building in the market. We all think some big movements are just around the corner and the big question is which way are things going to move?

Depending on your trading style you may be viewing the recent market action as the beginning stages of a bear market (major sell off). A bear market is not necessarily impossible as the U.S. Economy is showing the beginning signs of weakness. The fact that stocks have moved lower for almost 6 weeks straight is a recent reminder that we may not be out of the woods just yet. The recent price action and negative sentiment has been harsh enough to make 99% of traders bearish.

In contrast, some traders may be seeing this market as an oversold dip preparing for a bounce/rally in the bull market which we have been in since 2009. Some traders may see this as a buying opportunity because you are a contrarian. Most contrarians generally want to do the opposite of the masses (herd) who are merely trading purely out of emotional sentiment.

I myself have mixed thoughts on the market at this point in time. I’m not a big picture (long trend forecasting) kind of guy but my trading partner David Banister is great at it. Rather I am a shorter term trader catching extreme sentiment shifts in the market with trades lasting 3-60 days in length. So looking forward 2-5 days I feel as though stocks and commodities are going to bottom and start to head higher for a 2-6% bounce. At that point we need to regroup and analyze how the market got there… Was the buying coming from the herd, institutions, or was it just a short covering rally? Additionally, where are the key resistance levels and did we break through any?

During extreme sentiment shifts in the market we tend to see investments fall out of sync with each other for a few days. I feel the attention will be on stocks and we get a bounce this week. I am expecting commodities to trade relatively flat during the same time period.

OK let’s take a quick look at the charts…

Dollar Index 4 Hour Candles
I feel as though the US Dollar is trying to bottom. It is very possible that we test the May low at which point I would expect another strong bounce and possible multi-month rally. So if the dollar drops to the May lows then we should see higher stocks and commodities, but once the dollar firms up and heads higher it will be game over for risk assets.

Crude Oil Chart – Daily
Oil took a swan dive in early May and has yet to show any signs of moving higher. Actually crude oil is looking more and more bearish as time goes by.

Silver 4 Hour Chart
Silver has formed much of the same pattern that oil has. On a technical basis its pointing to sharply lower prices still. The fact that silver bullion went from an investment to a speculative trading instrument within the past 8 months makes me think it could test the $25 area. The one thing to remember here is that silver is still overall in a bull market. This is a 50/50 guess in my opinion as it nears the apex of this pennant pattern.

Gold 4 Hour Chart
Gold has held up much better than other metals and commodities and I feel that is because it’s still seen at the REAL safe haven. But reviewing the chart Im starting to see bearish price action beginning to take place.

SP500 Futures – 10 Minute Chart Going Back 8 Days
Last week the SP500 continued to show signs of weakness. Any bounce in the market was on light volume and that is because the sellers took a break and let all the small traders buy the market back up. But once the market moved up enough then sellers jumped back in and unloaded their shares.
Last Thursday I sent out an update to members pointing out that lower prices were to be expected. I came to this conclusion because of many data points. Looking at the chart you can see sellers are clearly in control. The SP500 bounces high enough that it reached a key resistance levels going back 5 days. Also the 200 period moving average was at that level. To top that off my sentiment reading for the herd mentality was at a point which sellers like to start dumping their shares again.

Weekly Market Trading Conclusion:
In short, I am getting more bullish for a bounce as the market falls. But once we are into day 3 or 4 of a bounce we must be ready to take profits and/or look for a possible short setup.

Get my free weekly reports here: http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/trade-money-emotions.php

Chris Vermeulen

Read more here:
The Stocks & Commodity Technical trading Outlook Part I




Chris Vermeulen is a full time daytrader and swing trader specializing in trading (NYSE:GLD), (NYSE:GDX), XGD.TO, (NYSE:SLV) and (NYSE:USO). I provide my trading charts, market insight and trading signals to members of my newsletter service. If you have any questions feel free to send me an email: Chris@TheGoldAndOilGuy.com This article is intended solely for information purposes. The opinions are those of the author only. Please conduct further research and consult your financial advisor before making any investment/trading decision. No responsibility can be accepted for losses that may result as a consequence of trading on the basis of this analysis.

Commodities, ETF

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