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Posts Tagged ‘smart’

SmartStops.net Teams With TradeKing to Facilitate Risk Management

July 11th, 2012

San Francisco, California, July 11, 2012– SmartStops.net, an online service that helps investors of all levels manage investment risk, announced today that the SmartStops BrokerLink service is now available for clients of online broker Read more…

ETF, Mutual Fund, OPTIONS, Uncategorized

A Managed Approach For Investment Portfolio Risk

April 5th, 2012

Is your investment portfolio more like a roller coaster with no exit strategy, just going round and round and up and down, arriving right back to where it started? Don’t just go along for the ride, use a managed approach to limit downside risk Read more…

Commodities, ETF, Uncategorized

Forget Buy & Hold – Here are 3 Easy Steps to Actively Manage Your Investment Risk

March 16th, 2012

An important debate is still unfolding amongst investors and advisors – Is Buy & Hold dead? Does it really still make sense to buy a stock or ETF and ignore strong signs that reflect increased risk that could seriously threaten returns? While some Read more…

ETF, OPTIONS, Uncategorized

Is The Chinese Consumer A Risky Bet For U.S. Investors And Corporations?

March 12th, 2012

Targeting the Chinese consumer is considered to be a low-risk market bet by many corporations. Wal-Mart (WMT) is one corporation that has been forging into the Chinese marketplace since 1996 and recently showed their continued commitment to Read more…

Uncategorized

The Commodity Summer Slump

June 9th, 2011

Larry Edelson

Heading into the June to August period, many commodity markets should experience their typical seasonal summer weakness. That means possible pullbacks in many commodities, including gold, silver, and oil.

Don’t be phased by it. It will be nothing more than a healthy pullback that will lead to substantially higher prices for nearly all tangible assets and resources over the next few years.

For one thing, the sovereign debt is clearly picking up momentum. Not only in Europe, but also in the United States where the debt ceiling, despite all the political jaw-boning, will likely be increased, and where the Federal Reserve will continue to print money to keep the debt juggernaut going.

For another, the U.S. dollar remains weak at the knees, hardly able to bounce, and terribly weak against the Swiss franc, the Australian and Canadian dollars, and even weak against the Euro.

And for yet another, Asia’s economies continue to build momentum for further growth. Take it from me, here on the front lines in Asia; I see no evidence of slowdowns whatsoever, whether it be here in Thailand, or Singapore, China, Indonesia or Malaysia.

The sum total of Asia’s growth means rising demand for commodities on a long-term basis — as nearly 62% the world’s population is Asian. That’s three out of every five people in the world.

Plus, we are already beginning to see the evidence of supply shortages in select commodities, from peaking oil supplies, to strains on agriculturals, to supply constraints in iron ore, copper, and more.

All of this is why one should not be very concerned about any commodity weakness that may develop in the short term.

So that you keep your eye on the long-term view, today I am going to reveal my long-term price targets for commodities, which were first published, of course, for members of my Real Wealth Report in last month’s issue.

But I also want you to keep fully in mind that you will not see such prices for a while. All of my work indicates that the extreme inflation that so many analysts now embrace and expect to see almost immediately will not come right away.

Indeed, I do not see inflation getting out of control until at least 2015.

Between now and then, we will continue to see massive swings in all markets, and oscillations between deflationary and inflationary psychology. We will also see some markets, assets classes and sectors inflate, while others crash and burn. It will be a wild ride, to say the least.

Three additional key points to keep in mind …

First, there will be another round of massive money printing from the Federal Reserve. There’s no question about it. Only the timing. The economy is showing signs of weakness and the only real buyer of U.S. debt right now — and in the future — is likely to be the Fed.

Second, the inflation you will see building over the next few years will be different from past inflations. The chief difference is that we will not see massive wage inflation.

There will be some wage inflation, but the bulk of the inflation I see going forward will stem — unequivocally — from dollar devaluation … from

Commodities, ETF, Mutual Fund, Uncategorized

Inside the Investor’s Brain – the power of Mind over Money

June 5th, 2011

Our goal at SmartStops - to teach all investors to think about risk management from the moment they start thinking about entering their position.   Portfolio management theory for diversification is not enough to offer the protection all investors deserve.

This book , Inside the Investor’s Brain – the power of Mind over Money was published by Dr. Richard Peterson in 2007.   As one book reviewer wrote:    “ The typical investor is his/her own worst enemy, doesn’t have a long-term investment strategy, cuts profits short and lets losses pile trying to break even, does not use stop loss orders, buys near the highs and sells near the lows, and likes to chase the hottest mutual funds or stocks. If you see yourself in any of these statements, then join the crowd. To become a better investor or trader it is crucial to understand how your brain impacts your decision-making. “

Some of the findings presented in Peterson’s book help resolve theoretical anomalies in finance. For instance, he cites research that shows that people typically weight losses twice as heavily as gains in their decision making; and, consequently, peoples’ decisions are made differently if they are “framed” in a loss-taking versus gains making context. A major reason for this difference is that different parts of peoples’ brains are engaged when considering potential losses rather than considering potential gains. Depending upon which part of a person’s brain is engaged, people will behave differently–which can explain why people and markets typically behave differently in “bull” versus “bear” markets, and why many people both buy insurance and gamble.

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Inside the Investor’s Brain – the power of Mind over Money




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Mutual Fund, Uncategorized

Inside the Investor’s Brain – the power of Mind over Money

June 5th, 2011

Our goal at SmartStops - to teach all investors to think about risk management from the moment they start thinking about entering their position.   Portfolio management theory for diversification is not enough to offer the protection all investors deserve.

This book , Inside the Investor’s Brain – the power of Mind over Money was published by Dr. Richard Peterson in 2007.   As one book reviewer wrote:    “ The typical investor is his/her own worst enemy, doesn’t have a long-term investment strategy, cuts profits short and lets losses pile trying to break even, does not use stop loss orders, buys near the highs and sells near the lows, and likes to chase the hottest mutual funds or stocks. If you see yourself in any of these statements, then join the crowd. To become a better investor or trader it is crucial to understand how your brain impacts your decision-making. “

Some of the findings presented in Peterson’s book help resolve theoretical anomalies in finance. For instance, he cites research that shows that people typically weight losses twice as heavily as gains in their decision making; and, consequently, peoples’ decisions are made differently if they are “framed” in a loss-taking versus gains making context. A major reason for this difference is that different parts of peoples’ brains are engaged when considering potential losses rather than considering potential gains. Depending upon which part of a person’s brain is engaged, people will behave differently–which can explain why people and markets typically behave differently in “bull” versus “bear” markets, and why many people both buy insurance and gamble.

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Inside the Investor’s Brain – the power of Mind over Money




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Mutual Fund, Uncategorized

Preparing for the next Black Swan

June 1st, 2011

Kevin Depew, editor of Minyanville posted an interesting article today at:    http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/collapse-financial-collapse-economic-collapse-depression/6/1/2011/id/34883

And we at SmartStops ask the same question – have people become immune to all the potential downfalls awaiting them?  Is that what causes them to try to ignore the risk around them?  As if they don’t acknowledge it , it doesn’t exist?    How do we get investors to feel that risk management is second nature to them when investing in the stock markets?  So they can invest wisely and with less “fear”.

..” It’s been 11 years since the dot-com crash. Our 2006 gloom no longer feels misplaced; it feels comfortable, safe. Yes, there are times to prepare for the worst.”    He ponders if we shouldn’t thus also have white swan focus, in seeing this Bloomberg ad:

“Preparing for the Next Black Swans”

Bloomberg Money Managers Conference

When 14-Jun-2011 (Tue) 07:45 – 13:00
Where State Room, 60 State St., 33rd Floor
Boston, MA, United States
Entry Fee USD 695.00

“I have to believe that perhaps the notion of a black swan has not been fully explained? Or if it was, then the concept itself not wholly grasped?”

The event description:

“Preparing for the Next Black Swans”: The year 2011 will most certainly be remembered for its Black Swan events, including the spreading unrest in the Middle East and the earthquake in Japan. Money Managers need to be prepared for unexpected events as they position their investments across asset classes. The Bloomberg Money Managers conference will bring together mutual fund, hedge fund and private equity investors to consider events that could rock the markets, portfolio strategies for managing the unforseen and the future of actively-managed investing.”

“Can you see the shift that has occurred? If you have not participated in or observed the financial services and money management industry throughout the 1990s and before, perhaps not. Prior to 2000, the very concept of a black swan — an unexpected event that has an outsized impact and which endures post-impact rationalization as wholly expected (a la dot-com crash, subprime collapse, debt crisis, etc.) — was anathema. The models accounted for all possibilities. Math and science, financial engineering had permanently eliminated tail risk. This is not overstating things. Fast-forward a full decade, black swans are everywhere, their ubiquity serving as a sort of psychic balm. Today, every unpredicted event is black swan-worthy.”

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Preparing for the next Black Swan




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Mutual Fund, Uncategorized

RIMM Risk Alert 6/1/11 – The Option Response

June 1st, 2011

By Michael C. Thomsett , contributing writer


(For those familiar with options trading and authorized to transact the following level of transactions)
 
Research in Motion (RIMM) alert: On June 1, 2011, a SmartStop Was Triggered.
The price of this stock in your SmartStops portfolio has fallen to the point where it’s triggered today’s SmartStop.
 
Note the last two sessions have developed one of two bearish alerts, confirming the SmartStop trigger. The full session was black followed by a downside gap. This may develop into one of two strongly bearish indicators. First is the side-by-side black lines, which will develop if a third session is also black and does not rise to fill the gap. Second is a downside tasuki gap, which develops if the third day is white and moves up and into the gap, but does not close it.
 
In either event, the confirmation of the SmartStops alert in the form of bearish signals may cause traders to take appropriate action. This may consist of one of three recommended options-based trades:
            1. Buy a protective put at 40. This decision makes sense if a trader’s original basis is lower than $40 per share. If the price declines into the money, the put can be closed to offset losses in the stock with increased intrinsic value; or it can be exercise to sell shares at a profit. The profit will be equal to the difference between the strike and original basis, minus the cost of the put. With the stock at $41.16 as of this writing, the June 40 put is valued at 1.41. If traders consider the downside risk short-term, buying this put makes sense. If considered longer term, one of the two following strategies makes more sense.
            2. Open a collar using the 42.50 call and the 40 put. The June collar based on these values involves the long 40 put at 1.41 and the short 42.50 call at 1.36. Net cost of the collar is 0.05 plus trading expenses; but it protects against downside protection just like a protective put but for less cost.
            3. Open a synthetic short stock position using the 42.50 positions. This involves a long put and a short call. The 42.50 put is at 2.70 and the call is at 1.36. The net cost for the synthetic short stock using June contracts is 1.34. The same strategy using September 42.50 contracts combines the long put at 4.50 and the short call at 3.45, for a net cost of 1.05 but a much longer period of downside protection.
 
Keep the probabilities on your side.

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RIMM Risk Alert 6/1/11 – The Option Response




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OPTIONS, Uncategorized

RIMM Risk Alert 6/1/11 – The Option Response

June 1st, 2011

By Michael C. Thomsett , contributing writer


(For those familiar with options trading and authorized to transact the following level of transactions)
 
Research in Motion (RIMM) alert: On June 1, 2011, a SmartStop Was Triggered.
The price of this stock in your SmartStops portfolio has fallen to the point where it’s triggered today’s SmartStop.
 
Note the last two sessions have developed one of two bearish alerts, confirming the SmartStop trigger. The full session was black followed by a downside gap. This may develop into one of two strongly bearish indicators. First is the side-by-side black lines, which will develop if a third session is also black and does not rise to fill the gap. Second is a downside tasuki gap, which develops if the third day is white and moves up and into the gap, but does not close it.
 
In either event, the confirmation of the SmartStops alert in the form of bearish signals may cause traders to take appropriate action. This may consist of one of three recommended options-based trades:
            1. Buy a protective put at 40. This decision makes sense if a trader’s original basis is lower than $40 per share. If the price declines into the money, the put can be closed to offset losses in the stock with increased intrinsic value; or it can be exercise to sell shares at a profit. The profit will be equal to the difference between the strike and original basis, minus the cost of the put. With the stock at $41.16 as of this writing, the June 40 put is valued at 1.41. If traders consider the downside risk short-term, buying this put makes sense. If considered longer term, one of the two following strategies makes more sense.
            2. Open a collar using the 42.50 call and the 40 put. The June collar based on these values involves the long 40 put at 1.41 and the short 42.50 call at 1.36. Net cost of the collar is 0.05 plus trading expenses; but it protects against downside protection just like a protective put but for less cost.
            3. Open a synthetic short stock position using the 42.50 positions. This involves a long put and a short call. The 42.50 put is at 2.70 and the call is at 1.36. The net cost for the synthetic short stock using June contracts is 1.34. The same strategy using September 42.50 contracts combines the long put at 4.50 and the short call at 3.45, for a net cost of 1.05 but a much longer period of downside protection.
 
Keep the probabilities on your side.

Read more here:
RIMM Risk Alert 6/1/11 – The Option Response




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OPTIONS, Uncategorized

Amazon in Solid Growth Trend With E-Book Business

May 27th, 2011

originally posted at Minyanville 

by  Tony Daltorio. contributing writer

Amazon says it is selling more e-books for its Kindle electronic reading device than paperback and hardback editions combined.

If you would have told any book lover a few years ago that electronic books were poised to surge in popularity and overtake traditional books, you would have been scoffed at and drawn more than a few stares.But here we are a few years later. The Association of American Publishers recently reported that US e-book revenues had grown 146 percent in March over the same month a year ago.Figures for March showed e-book revenues of $69 million. This trailed only adult paperbacks, which were down 8 percent at $116 million, and adult hardbacks, up 6 percent at $96.6 million.

So it should come as no great surprise to investors that Amazon.com (AMZN) is at the forefront of the trend toward e-books. The company began as an online seller of printed books in 1995 and launched the Kindle e-reader in November 2007.

Amazon’s Growth

Amazon said it is selling more e-books for its Kindle electronic reading device than paperback and hardback print editions combined. It now sells 105 electronic books for every 100 printed ones. Amazon’s founder and CEO Jeff Bezos commented, “We had high hopes that this would happen eventually, but we never imagined it would happen this quickly.”

This is a trend which has been in place for roughly the last year now. Sales of e-books surpassed hardcover titles in July 2010 and overtook paperbacks six months later. And now its bested both categories combined!

A real positive is the fact that Amazon stated that this trend helped its book business do its strongest growth in more than a decade.

Amazon only released unit sales data rather than comparable revenue figures, and Kindle editions typically sell for lower prices than print titles.

However, the data did suggest that Amazon might be extending its leading market share in e-books. This follows the release six weeks ago of a cut-price Kindle at $114 for US customers willing to accept sponsored screen savers and other advertising.

Publishers, who gathered this week at the annual Book Expo America in New York, think that this trend toward e-books will continue. They believe Amazon and other e-book sellers are likely to benefit from the trouble afflicting Borders and other brick-and-mortar book sellers. Borders filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in February.

If you decide to make an investment in Amazon, be sure you have sufficiently evaluated the risk for your investment. Even though Amazon looks to be in a solid growth trend with its e-books business, it’s important to maintain an intelligent risk strategy to earn higher returns.

Buy and protect — it’s the smart way of investing.

Read more here:
Amazon in Solid Growth Trend With E-Book Business




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Uncategorized

Amazon in Solid Growth Trend With E-Book Business

May 27th, 2011

originally posted at Minyanville 

by  Tony Daltorio. contributing writer

Amazon says it is selling more e-books for its Kindle electronic reading device than paperback and hardback editions combined.

If you would have told any book lover a few years ago that electronic books were poised to surge in popularity and overtake traditional books, you would have been scoffed at and drawn more than a few stares.But here we are a few years later. The Association of American Publishers recently reported that US e-book revenues had grown 146 percent in March over the same month a year ago.Figures for March showed e-book revenues of $69 million. This trailed only adult paperbacks, which were down 8 percent at $116 million, and adult hardbacks, up 6 percent at $96.6 million.

So it should come as no great surprise to investors that Amazon.com (AMZN) is at the forefront of the trend toward e-books. The company began as an online seller of printed books in 1995 and launched the Kindle e-reader in November 2007.

Amazon’s Growth

Amazon said it is selling more e-books for its Kindle electronic reading device than paperback and hardback print editions combined. It now sells 105 electronic books for every 100 printed ones. Amazon’s founder and CEO Jeff Bezos commented, “We had high hopes that this would happen eventually, but we never imagined it would happen this quickly.”

This is a trend which has been in place for roughly the last year now. Sales of e-books surpassed hardcover titles in July 2010 and overtook paperbacks six months later. And now its bested both categories combined!

A real positive is the fact that Amazon stated that this trend helped its book business do its strongest growth in more than a decade.

Amazon only released unit sales data rather than comparable revenue figures, and Kindle editions typically sell for lower prices than print titles.

However, the data did suggest that Amazon might be extending its leading market share in e-books. This follows the release six weeks ago of a cut-price Kindle at $114 for US customers willing to accept sponsored screen savers and other advertising.

Publishers, who gathered this week at the annual Book Expo America in New York, think that this trend toward e-books will continue. They believe Amazon and other e-book sellers are likely to benefit from the trouble afflicting Borders and other brick-and-mortar book sellers. Borders filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in February.

If you decide to make an investment in Amazon, be sure you have sufficiently evaluated the risk for your investment. Even though Amazon looks to be in a solid growth trend with its e-books business, it’s important to maintain an intelligent risk strategy to earn higher returns.

Buy and protect — it’s the smart way of investing.

Read more here:
Amazon in Solid Growth Trend With E-Book Business




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Uncategorized

Investors Beware: 4 Chinese Companies of Questionable Value

May 25th, 2011

 By Raghu Gullapalli , contributing writer, SmartStops.net

 It may be tempting to stay in companies like VanceInfo, Longtop Financial Technologies if you own their stock, but consider the risks carefully.

 This past Sunday I watched the premier of HBO’s Too Big to Fail, the story of the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the subsequent bailout of AIG (AIG) and the creation of the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP).

While most of the movie seemed like a rather simplified version of events, one thing did resonate with me: the inability of many financial professionals to realize the true value of the “assets” in their portfolios. If the likes of Dick Fuld, with all his acumen and resources, lacked the perspective to realize he was standing on a pile of garbage, what chance is there the normal, everyday investor would correctly assess his or her own portfolio?

To that end, let’s play devil’s advocate and take a look at some equities of questionable value.

On April 26 and 27 of this year, Longtop Financial Technologies (LFT) dropped nearly 50% following a report of fraudulent financial statements from Citron Research. How could the average investor have protected himself or herself better, you ask? Simple: Appropriate risk management. By always having an eye on the risk, investors could have protected profits and at the very least prevented the eventual outcome — possibly losing 100% of their investment when the stock was halted last week.

If the fundamentals of a company are flawed or outright fraud, how is it possible to assess the true worth of a company? All you can do is mitigate your risk and make sure you have the right shoes on when you wade through those “muddy” waters.

AsiaInfo-Linkage (ASIA) is one of the plethora of Chinese software companies that have come seeking investors in US markets, for example. The stock began to really plummet toward the beginning of April when accusations of fraud began to circulate and then cut through the 210-day moving average with conviction. After a brief bounce back to the 210, it has continued its dive and may seek the low single digits from whence it came. Smartstops has the short-term stop at $16.68 and the long-term stop a scant $0.40 away at $16.21. In the unlikely event the stock reverses course, our reentry price is $20.49.

Another company to beware of is VanceInfo (VIT). Oppenheimer beat me to the punch when they downgraded it this morning. According to Oppenheimer, “The firm downgraded the stock because it has limited confidence in financial statements for Chinese IT services companies that have been audited by Deloitte, after the SEC launched an inquiry into Longtop Financial.” VIT, too, looks to return single digits if not to zero as it follows its current trajectory. It is close to 10 points below the 210-day moving average. Smartstops has the short-term stop at $20.56 and the long-term stop is $18.65

Another company that may be attractive for would-be Chinese real estate investors is E-House Holdings Limited (EJ). For those of you who think they know better than Jim Chanos, think again. If this stock is a leading indicator of a Chinese real estate bubble, the world is in for some rocky times ahead. The stock is trading below its 55- and 210-day moving averages. Some part of this phenomenon is related to the Chinese government’s desire to reduce speculation in the market. Smartstops has the short-term stop at $9.85 and the long-term stop is at $9.59

It may be tempting to stay in these companies if you own their stock, or even enter here if you feel like rolling the dice. But remember the lessons of 2008; the speculators at Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns, and AIG brought down those venerable names by ignoring risk management.

Rarely is the juice worth the squeeze.

published at Minyanville

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Investors Beware: 4 Chinese Companies of Questionable Value




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Real Estate, Uncategorized

As President Obama said, the stock market needs to be under a watchful eye

May 24th, 2011

President Obama made this statement in his inaugural address.  For the latest on what’s happening read below.  SmartStops is proud to be a member of the GlobalRisk Community.    Of course , we at SmartStops think regulation can only achieve so much, and hope that our intelligent risk management approach can be an alternative “watchful eye” helping increase protection for all investors, traders and professional advisors.

This was originally published on the GlobalRisk Community website.

 DFA Reform: With 30% of rules in place will regulators be ready to prevent another financial crisis.

Report by Marijana Curguz – GlobalRisk community’s participant at the conference

With House Committee passing a slew of rules on May 4, 2011 to postpone the implementation of derivatives section of the DFA by 18 months, Seila Bair’s decision to leave the FDIC on July 8, Geithner’s warning of a financial crisis if the legal debt limit is not raised, many are wondering if the U.S. economy is heading back into recession and will regulators be ready to prevent it.
These and other concerns were the main focus of the Regulatory Risk conference held in New York on May 9-10, 2011.  The organizer, Marcus Evans, brought together leading industry Experts and a keynote speaker Carlo V. di Florio, Head of SEC Office of Compliance Inspections and Examination,  to evaluate critical Regulatory Reforms: the Dodd-Frank Act, Basel III, housing finance reforms and KYC/CIP that are drastically altering the landscape of the financial world as we know it.
Florio underlined SEC need for a big budget boost to keep up with the fast-growing markets and carry out new duties they were tasked by the DFA.  SEC was handed lion’s share of work to implement DFA that requires it to write nearly 100 new rules for Wall Street by summer, manage systemic risk, oversee the $600 trillion derivatives market, regulate the unregulated (PE, HF, Credit Rating Agencies, ABS) and catch the next Bernard Madoff, and secure greater transparency and liquidity.
Regulators confirmed they asked the Congress to extend the deadline for some portions of their rulemaking as only 30% of the regulations have been enacted while 62% of 387 rules have not been proposed yet. As of April 2011, none of the deadlines of 30 DFA rule makings were met. On May 4, 2011, House Committee approved a bill to delay by 18 months or until December 31, 2012 the derivatives section of DFA. It kept the July 21, deadline for reporting of swap trades and for regulators to define who is covered by the law. The largest 25 bank holding companies currently have $277 trillion notional amount of swaps. 
Florio said SEC is finalizing the rules on the new risk-based national exam program, consolidated audit trail and large trader reporting, that will help it better track trading across the fragmented U.S. equity markets. Some of the key risks the Exam is focusing on, broken down by participants, are: Investment Managers (valuation, portfolio management, performance), Broker Dealers (product innovation, abusive sales practices, lack of technology/system breaks), Credit Rating Agencies (conflict of interests, inadequate processes, people).
The panel of industry experts including Mark Gunton, CRO, HSBC, Scott Polakoff, Principal, Booz Allen, to name a few, shared their experiences and view on how to navigate the regulatory landscape to create an effective compliance plan, determine what compliance areas are most important for growth and managing regulatory compliance risk, evaluate the people, processes and technology necessary to facilitate compliance with new regulations, optimize compliance and risk management practices by discussing key issues: new capital and liquidity requirements, enhance transparency across the business.
The conference ended on a positive note, with participants believing the financial industry is heading for further consolidation though the worst might be over as some indicators purport it: Loss projections for FI are budgeted at  $4.5  Bn down from $23 bn, a year ago, deposit insrance is profitable again, Banks downgrades declined, Banks failure cost decreased to $92bn from $170bn y-o-y, there is more transparency in the markets, Whistleblowers regulation is in place, trading and markets, in particular swap deals have improved significantly.

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As President Obama said, the stock market needs to be under a watchful eye




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Uncategorized

Popular Exit Strategies- The Good, The Bad, The Ugly

May 24th, 2011

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