Archive

Posts Tagged ‘etf’

Forget Buy & Hold – Here are 3 Easy Steps to Actively Manage Your Investment Risk

March 16th, 2012

An important debate is still unfolding amongst investors and advisors – Is Buy & Hold dead? Does it really still make sense to buy a stock or ETF and ignore strong signs that reflect increased risk that could seriously threaten returns? While some Read more…

ETF, OPTIONS, Uncategorized

Take The Greek Factor Out Of Your Investment Portfolio

February 28th, 2012

Although one may think that they’re not invested in the Greek crisis, many portfolios may hold equity positions and ETFs that could be effected by the European debt crisis.  The European Union is the U.S.’s number one trading Read more…

ETF, Uncategorized

ETFs And Allocations To Protect Portfolios In The Current Financial Storm

October 24th, 2011

This is a followup to a previous postings suggesting how investors can take refuge in the oncoming financial storm. If you’ve not done so already, be sure to read my previous post Say It Ain’t So for a description of our dismal macroeconomic Read more…

ETF, Real Estate, Uncategorized

The New Oil Dynamics

October 17th, 2011

The oil market changed back in 2009, but most Americans did not notice. That was the year, for the first time, China temporarily surpassed the United States as Saudi Arabia’s biggest and most important Read more…

Uncategorized

The Stocks & Commodity Technical trading Outlook Part I

June 13th, 2011

The coming summer should be exciting for traders! While summer trading generally tends to be slow, this one could be different. A large number of other professional traders I talk with are all feeling the tension building in the market. We all think some big movements are just around the corner and the big question is which way are things going to move?

Depending on your trading style you may be viewing the recent market action as the beginning stages of a bear market (major sell off). A bear market is not necessarily impossible as the U.S. Economy is showing the beginning signs of weakness. The fact that stocks have moved lower for almost 6 weeks straight is a recent reminder that we may not be out of the woods just yet. The recent price action and negative sentiment has been harsh enough to make 99% of traders bearish.

In contrast, some traders may be seeing this market as an oversold dip preparing for a bounce/rally in the bull market which we have been in since 2009. Some traders may see this as a buying opportunity because you are a contrarian. Most contrarians generally want to do the opposite of the masses (herd) who are merely trading purely out of emotional sentiment.

I myself have mixed thoughts on the market at this point in time. I’m not a big picture (long trend forecasting) kind of guy but my trading partner David Banister is great at it. Rather I am a shorter term trader catching extreme sentiment shifts in the market with trades lasting 3-60 days in length. So looking forward 2-5 days I feel as though stocks and commodities are going to bottom and start to head higher for a 2-6% bounce. At that point we need to regroup and analyze how the market got there… Was the buying coming from the herd, institutions, or was it just a short covering rally? Additionally, where are the key resistance levels and did we break through any?

During extreme sentiment shifts in the market we tend to see investments fall out of sync with each other for a few days. I feel the attention will be on stocks and we get a bounce this week. I am expecting commodities to trade relatively flat during the same time period.

OK let’s take a quick look at the charts…

Dollar Index 4 Hour Candles
I feel as though the US Dollar is trying to bottom. It is very possible that we test the May low at which point I would expect another strong bounce and possible multi-month rally. So if the dollar drops to the May lows then we should see higher stocks and commodities, but once the dollar firms up and heads higher it will be game over for risk assets.

Crude Oil Chart – Daily
Oil took a swan dive in early May and has yet to show any signs of moving higher. Actually crude oil is looking more and more bearish as time goes by.

Silver 4 Hour Chart
Silver has formed much of the same pattern that oil has. On a technical basis its pointing to sharply lower prices still. The fact that silver bullion went from an investment to a speculative trading instrument within the past 8 months makes me think it could test the $25 area. The one thing to remember here is that silver is still overall in a bull market. This is a 50/50 guess in my opinion as it nears the apex of this pennant pattern.

Gold 4 Hour Chart
Gold has held up much better than other metals and commodities and I feel that is because it’s still seen at the REAL safe haven. But reviewing the chart Im starting to see bearish price action beginning to take place.

SP500 Futures – 10 Minute Chart Going Back 8 Days
Last week the SP500 continued to show signs of weakness. Any bounce in the market was on light volume and that is because the sellers took a break and let all the small traders buy the market back up. But once the market moved up enough then sellers jumped back in and unloaded their shares.
Last Thursday I sent out an update to members pointing out that lower prices were to be expected. I came to this conclusion because of many data points. Looking at the chart you can see sellers are clearly in control. The SP500 bounces high enough that it reached a key resistance levels going back 5 days. Also the 200 period moving average was at that level. To top that off my sentiment reading for the herd mentality was at a point which sellers like to start dumping their shares again.

Weekly Market Trading Conclusion:
In short, I am getting more bullish for a bounce as the market falls. But once we are into day 3 or 4 of a bounce we must be ready to take profits and/or look for a possible short setup.

Get my free weekly reports here: http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/trade-money-emotions.php

Chris Vermeulen

Read more here:
The Stocks & Commodity Technical trading Outlook Part I




Chris Vermeulen is a full time daytrader and swing trader specializing in trading (NYSE:GLD), (NYSE:GDX), XGD.TO, (NYSE:SLV) and (NYSE:USO). I provide my trading charts, market insight and trading signals to members of my newsletter service. If you have any questions feel free to send me an email: Chris@TheGoldAndOilGuy.com This article is intended solely for information purposes. The opinions are those of the author only. Please conduct further research and consult your financial advisor before making any investment/trading decision. No responsibility can be accepted for losses that may result as a consequence of trading on the basis of this analysis.

Commodities, ETF

Don’t touch these stocks with a ten-foot pole!

June 13th, 2011

Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D.Major stock sectors are now in a race for the bottom.

These are stocks on a rendezvous with their lowest lows reached in the debt crisis of 2008-2009 … sinking back into the danger zone that came with red ink, bankruptcy, and financial ruin for millions of investors.

Hard to believe that could already be happening so soon after the market peaked?

Then consider the 25 stocks I’m going to list for you in a moment, starting with PMI Group, one of the nation’s leading mortgage insurers.

Two and a half years ago, at the height of the financial crisis, this leading mortgage insurer plummeted to a low of a meager 32 cents per share.

But in the weeks and months that followed, Washington worked overtime to inject trillions of dollars into the housing market and convince the world that the Great American Nightmare — the worst real estate crash of all time — was over.

Many Americans, blinded by their faith in “almighty government,” actually fell for it: The housing market stabilized temporarily. The economy recovered a bit. Stocks rallied sharply. And PMI surged, reaching a peak of $7.10 per share last year.

But that was just the prelude to disaster …

Chart

In the ensuing months, all of the government’s housing support programs and all the government’s mortgage subsidy initiatives failed.

Nothing the government did could stop wave after wave of mortgage defaults and foreclosures.

And even the government’s massive injections of money into the mortgage market were unable to prevent PMI from crashing again, closing at a mere $1.12 per share in late trading hours this past Friday.

That’s down a sickening 84% from last year’s high!

If you had invested $10,000 in this dog at that time, you’d now have only $1,577 in your account right now.

An Unimportant Company? No!

PMI has historically been a huge player with a pivotal function in the housing finance industry — insuring mortgages against default. But now …

If big mortgage insurers like PMI go out of business or refuse to write new policies, most lenders will refuse to extend mortgage loans to anyone except those who are rich enough to buy a home for cash and don’t need a mortgage to begin with.

Moreover, PMI is on the frontline of the losing battle against a flood of bad mortgages in virtually every region of the United States.

So if this company is drowning and its stock is sinking to zero, you can be quite certain that many other companies downstream — lenders and banks, builders and realtors, REITs and other financials — are likely to face a similar fate.

As I illustrated here last week, nearly all bank and financial stocks are now in a race for the bottom — the only difference being, PMI is “winning” that race.

Just a Technical Correction?

If the housing and mortgage markets were holding up nicely, perhaps you could make that argument stick. But the fact is, all three key facets of this giant sector are coming unglued at the seams —

  1. The finances of homeowners who borrowed the money
  2. The finances of bankers who loaned them the money
  3. And the value of the home itself, the underlying collateral that’s supposed to be tapped when folks run out of money.

This is no small technicality. It’s a fundamental deterioration in the underpinnings of the entire sector.

“Why Can’t the Government Come
To The Rescue Again?” You Ask

For the simple reason that the government itself is ALSO running out of money.

But for argument’s sake, let’s say the government does somehow come up with more funds to pump into housing and mortgages.

OK. So what? What difference is that going to make?

Based on the recent history, the answer should be obvious: Not much!

Chart

Remember: No amount of government intervention has been able to prevent home prices from plunging to new lows — even lower than the bottom of March 2009, when homes were selling at deeply distressed prices. (See chart to left.)

Similarly, no amount of government intervention can prevent nearly every sector that touches housing and mortgages from suffering a similar fate.

“Martin’s Too Pessimistic.
Don’t Listen to Him!” Say My Critics

Harry Truman once said. “I never give them hell. I just tell the truth and they think it’s hell.”

That’s what my team and I do.

If anything, we’re optimists. We find the few companies that do have the wherewithal to survive and even benefit. And we see silver linings in this crisis that I’ll be glad to tell you more about in future issues.

Moreover, this is isn’t the first time we have given advance warnings about companies like PMI.

In our Safe Money Report of April 2005, well before the housing bubble peaked, we told our subscribers not to touch PMI Group and 24 other stocks with a ten-foot pole. Here they are:

Aames Investment, Accredited Home Lenders, Beazer Homes, Countrywide Financial, DR Horton, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Fidelity National Financial, Fremont General, General Motors, Golden West Financial, H&R Block, KB Homes, MDC Holdings, MGIC Investment, New Century Financial, Novastar Financial, PHH Group, PMI Group, Pulte Homes, Radian Group, Toll Brothers, Washington Mutual, and Wells Fargo & Company.

(Want proof? Click here for the SMR issue of April 2005 and scroll down to page 10.)

Subsequently, 11 of these 25 companies filed for bankruptcy, were bailed out or bought out.

ALL 25 stocks plummeted, with an AVERAGE loss of 81.3%.

And even after more than two years of stock market rally, investors who bought and held these stocks are deep in the red.

(But whether they rallied or not, our advice to anyone who owns the surviving companies today is the same: Don’t touch them with a ten-foot pole!)

Later, in the financial crisis of 2008, we were the only ones who issued negative ratings and warned well ahead of time of nearly every major firm that subsequently collapsed. We warned about …

* Bear Stearns 102 days before it failed (click here for the proof)

* Lehman Brothers 182 days before (proof)

* Citigroup 110 days before (proof)

* Washington Mutual 51 days before (proof), and

* Fannie Mae 4 years before (proof).

That’s history. What counts most now is that …

It’s “Game Over” for the U.S. “Recovery”

Look. From the outset, we knew the U.S. economic recovery was rigged — bought and paid for by the greatest monetary and fiscal extravaganzas of all time.

We knew that no government, no matter how rich, can create corporate immortality: In the real world, companies are born and companies must die. I’m sure you understood that as well.

We knew that no government, no matter how autocratic, can repeal the law of gravity: When sellers are anxious to sell and buyers are reluctant to buy, prices fall. A no-brainer!

We also knew that no government, no matter how powerful, can stop the march of time: With every second that ticks by, more debts come due, more mortgages go into default, more homes are foreclosed.

And I think you knew, too. But still you ask:

“How Could This Recovery End So
Abruptly and Crumble So Dramatically?”

Answer: As we’ve been telling you all along, it was never a true recovery to begin with:

CANCEL your Weiss subscriptions and I will “pay” you $9,581!

June 12th, 2011

The powerful economic changes we’ve been warning you about have now begun to hit the U.S. economy where it hurts.

So to help make sure you’re completely ready for the huge volatility ahead, I want to change our relationship in a very fundamental way.

To make that possible, I will “pay” you $9,581 to immediately cancel your current Weiss Research subscription, and in a moment I’ll explain exactly how and why.

That’s nearly $10,000 for you.

All you have to do is decide whether you want to accept it or not.

But don’t worry: If you decide to go for it, I’ll still be there for you through thick and thin. So will Mike Larson, Larry Edelson, Nilus Mattive, Sean Brodrick, and everyone else on our team.

In fact, if you cancel your subscriptions right now, you can get ALL of the services and profit opportunities that ALL of our analysts offer for as long as you want, and STILL get the $9,581 IN ADDITION to all our services.

Unbelievable? Perhaps. But it’s true.

You cancel your subscriptions. You get EVERYTHING we publish today — every service, every recommendation, every video or email.

You get them FOREVER.

Plus, you’ll also get ALL the new Weiss publications we introduce in the future.

And on top of everything, you get “paid” $9,581!

Yes, I agree. It IS hard to believe. But it’s a fact. And by the time you finish reading this letter, you’ll know everything you need to know to claim your $9,581.

It’s an opportunity that I am offering exclusively to a small, select group of our subscribers, but only for TEN DAYS. The opportunity expires promptly at midnight, Saturday, June 18th. I have selected this ten-day window right now because of the dramatic events that have just begun to unfold!

Nationwide, housing prices have just made new lows. Unemployment is rising again. We have an obvious downturn in the U.S. economy.

We see a rapid deterioration in U.S. bank finances.

Plus, we are facing landmark budget battles in Washington — and a Congress sworn to block any major new bailouts or stimulus schemes.

I don’t want you to be hurt by the fall-out or miss any of the dramatic opportunities this crisis has already begun to generate.

Plus, there’s another, very practical reason I have limited this offer to a small group of investors and strictly for this ten-day window: Because of the mixed impact this kind of monumental give-away can have on my business.

I’ve been running this company without interruption for 40 years straight, and if you consider the legacy of my father’s companies before me, we have an 80-year Weiss family tradition of guiding investors to safety and wealth building opportunities.  

I’m in great health and have a solid team of successors to keep the business going for decades to come.

So now let me explain the new kind of relationship we can have and how it works:

It’s my Weiss Inner Circle.

My Inner Circle is the most intimate, most elite, and most private group of friends and clients among our entire family of 400,000 readers and subscribers.

The idea is very straightforward: You get every newsletter, every VIP trading service, every rating, every research report, and EVERY PROFIT OPPORTUNITY that ALL of the Weiss divisions currently have to offer.

You get every single Weiss publication we launch in the future. You get them for as long as we publish them — and as long as you want them.

You get all that FOR LIFE — for less than the cost of just ONE YEAR of those services.

You’ll receive our in-depth monthly investment newsletters — the widely acclaimed Safe Money Report, Real Wealth Report, Income Superstars, Crisis Profit Hunter and Asia Stock Alert.

You’ll get our high-end global VIP trading services, including Emerging Market Winners, International ETF Trader, Red-Hot Global Resources, and Crisis Trader.

You’ll be welcomed with open arms to our million-dollar portfolios, which, with this rare exception we’re making for you now, are CLOSED to all new investors!

They include our Million-Dollar Contrarian Portfolio, our Million-Dollar Rapid Growth Portfolio and our Weiss Million-Dollar Ratings Portfolio.

To underscore my confidence in these investment approaches, I have invested $1 million of my own money in each one! And you can not only track what I do with my own money but actually buy or sell BEFORE I do.

You’ll get our fast-paced, ultrahigh-profit-potential options research services, including Resource Windfall Trader, LEAPS Options Alert, and World Currency Trader.

Perhaps most exciting of all, you’ll be among the first to get the new Weiss service we’re getting ready to launch in a few weeks — not to mention all the new ones we introduce in the months to come.

Plus, There’s One Big Extra Bonus
You’ll Receive That No One Else Will.

You see, up until now, whenever our analysts in Asia, Europe, Latin America or right here in the U.S. have come across major profit opportunities in certain, unique small, but innovative companies, I’ve told them NOT to recommend them.

As you might imagine, this has frustrated the hell out of our analysts who find precious little gems they’d love to recommend to their subscribers.

Still, I have drawn a line in the sand on this issue. We simply cannot recommend these investments to thousands of investors. It would make it difficult for investors to get in — or out — at a fair price.

And that’s a shame — because as you know, it’s these smaller companies that can often post some of the most explosive gains!

The great news is, you can have full access to these kinds of recommendations as a member of my Weiss Inner Circle!

Since my Weiss Inner Circle is a very intimate, VIP group, I have given our analysts the green light to recommend these special opportunities exclusively to Weiss Inner Circle members.

This way, savvy investors like you can take advantage of these stellar, extremely high profit potential companies all over the world.

The profits from just this one benefit ALONE could cover the entire cost of membership in my Weiss Inner Circle.

In addition,

You’ll Be Among the Very First to
Get the Brand-New Service We’re
Launching THIS Month!

It’s devoted to an extremely high-powered new investment vehicle.

We’ll give you the opportunity to try it out before virtually everyone else in the world.

And then when we launch it to the general public, it will cost at least $2,500 PER YEAR. But it will be yours FOR LIFE with your membership in my Weiss Inner Circle.

And there’s more.

In recent months, we have inaugurated some incredibly valuable services and offered them FIRST to Weiss Inner Circle members.

For example, members of our Weiss Inner Circle were the first to gain unlimited access to the proprietary research we have on 40,000 companies and investments.

That includes every public company in the U.S., ranging from the smallest upstart to the largest blue chip. Plus, it also includes every exchange traded fund (ETF) and mutual fund.

We also cover nearly every U.S. bank, credit union, and insurance company.

And all of this research is based on the objective ratings we originally developed.

If you want our research on any institution, you can get it instantly. If you want reports on a hundred institutions of your choice, they’re yours.

Or if you want our help to SEARCH through the strongest among THOUSANDS of institutions, that’s also a part of your membership.

Grab our research as often as you like …

Claim as many reports as you like …

There are absolutely NO LIMITATIONS!

The more investments you have, the more banks or insurers you do business with, and the more you use this incredibly timely, accurate resource, the more profitable it could be for you.

Value: Immense and unlimited!

And there’s another very unique benefit to my Weiss Inner Circle — a benefit that flows directly and naturally from our 80-year history. It’s the Weiss Family Program, which I’ll explain to you in just a moment.

But …

Please Don’t Underestimate the
Exclusive Value of This Membership.

I will never send this invitation to the general public.

I am sending this invitation exclusively to our most loyal subscribers, representing only a small fraction of our readers. And we have set aside only a very tiny number of Weiss Inner Circle memberships — enough for only 2% of our loyal subscribers.

So I am asking you not share this invitation with anyone else.

Now, if you know me, you know I devote a lot of my time and heart to helping the average investor. So I’d love to help everyone if I could. But since many of the investments made available to our Inner Circle members are often smaller special opportunities, we MUST strictly limit the number of memberships we make available.

That’s why I’d like you to keep this to yourself and your closest family members only.

Most important, I recommend that you NOT wait until the end of this ten-day window. Membership is first come first served. If all the available memberships are taken BEFORE the last day, we will close the doors sooner.

In other words, the BEST time to collect your $9,581 is right now.

So now let me explain precisely how you can effectively get paid $9,581 — and at the same time cancel your Weiss Research subscriptions.

Remember what I said at the outset: A membership in the Weiss Inner Circle costs LESS than one year of the services that members receive.

You can get a lifetime membership in all our investment newsletters … all our fast-paced ETF and stock trading services … all of our million-dollar portfolios … all of our extreme high-profit-potential options services … PLUS unlimited access to our research on all 40,000 companies based on the ratings we originally developed.

And you get it all for LESS than the DISCOUNTED price of what you’d pay for a single year.

On top of that, you get all the Weiss publications we will launch in the future.

In the first year alone, you’ll immediately save a whopping $9,581! That’s how I “pay” you this money immediately.

If you got only ONE YEAR of our services and nothing more, you’d already have a huge benefit — nearly $10,000.

But that’s just the beginning …

By the second year, you’ll have saved $27,983.

By year five, you will have saved $83,189!

And in year ten, your total savings will add up to a whopping $175,199!

WITHOUT even including the value of the new services we’re going to be adding — typically a few per year.

In this letter, I’m going to tell you about many of the services you will get, including a few that sometimes go for large triple-digit gains.

But before I do, I want to make sure you understand the context.

It’s important to point out that those large triple-digit gains are NOT always possible, and you should NOT go into any of our services with the expectation that they are the norm.

Normally, most investors are thrilled to bank single- and double-digit profits, and so are we.

And typically, it’s only when great events make markets more volatile that it’s possible to make the far larger gains.

The recent huge rises in oil, gold and other commodity prices are good examples. So is the dramatic decline of the U.S. dollar recently. The collapse of major banks in 2008-2009 also provided some unique megaprofit opportunities. And with the U.S. economy now weakening, with a big budget battle looming and major new global money flows on the immediate horizon, we anticipate similar — or bigger — market moving events ahead.

But it’s also important to remember that all investments involve risk of loss. Nobody I know — including our analysts, who I feel are among the best in the world — can win 100% of the time. Losses, even losing streaks, come with the territory.

The good news is that, with expert guidance and prudent risk management, the historic events we’re now seeing in the U.S. economy, the currency markets and in commodities offer us opportunities that other generations of investors could only dream about. With that in mind, let me tell you about the first new service we’re going to be adding THIS MONTH.

It’s by the world’s most consistently successful trader I have known or probably ever will know. And what’s unique about it is that he HAS been a consistent big winner year after year.

I can’t reveal his name right now. But when I do reveal it this month, you’ll probably recognize him instantly since he’s been such a regular guest on CNBC, Fox News, CNN … and because he’s been quoted so often in the most widely respected websites, journals and blogs all over the world.

What many people do NOT know about him is that he’s been making recommendations to a very small, private group of investors who could have used them to make a fortune.

His track record since he began in 2004 through May of this year, which we’ve verified trade by trade, shows a total return — including winners and losers — of 1,133.2% — enough to make you more than 11 times richer!

If you had started with $10,000, you could now have over $120,000. If you had invested $25,000, you could now have over $300,000. And if you had started with $100,000, you’d now have over $1.2 million.

An astonishing 69% of trades were winners — and the AVERAGE return on each winner was 87.4% — nearly a double, while the average loss on losing trades was only 32%.

Of course, past performance is no guaranty of future success because the vehicles he uses and market conditions can change. But I have personally been getting his trading signals; and I’ve seen, in real time, how consistently accurate they’ve been.

That’s important. And it’s why we’ve decided to add a new service he’ll be running to our Weiss Inner Circle this month.

Normally, investors would pay up to $5,000 for his trading signals, and even if we decide to offer a discount for Charter members, they will still pay close to $2,500 — for one year. But as a member of my Weiss Inner Circle, you will get them as part of your lifetime membership.

As a member of my Weiss Inner Circle, you will also get a lifetime membership in Mike Larson’s LEAPS Options Alert.

In most respects, LEAPS options — or simply LEAPS — are just like any other stock option. They’re generally inexpensive. And their purchase offers you virtually unlimited profit potential with your risk on each trade strictly limited to their cost plus a small broker commission.

But LEAPS give you a critical advantage that ordinary options do not: They can give you far more TIME to work in your favor — up to THREE YEARS! While most other options expire in just a few months, you can buy LEAPS right now that won’t expire until 2014!

This makes LEAPS excellent vehicles for two goals that are especially critical today:

  • To serve as “crash insurance,” helping to PROTECT your portfolio against losses; and
  • To GROW your wealth rapidly — especially helpful in declining markets.

Take Phase I of this great debt crisis, for instance: Had you purchased long-term LEAPS on each of the stocks we warned you about well in advance — the very same stocks we NAMED as candidates for failure — you could have banked …

CANCEL your Weiss subscriptions and I will “pay” you $9,581!

June 12th, 2011

The powerful economic changes we’ve been warning you about have now begun to hit the U.S. economy where it hurts.

So to help make sure you’re completely ready for the huge volatility ahead, I want to change our relationship in a very fundamental way.

To make that possible, I will “pay” you $9,581 to immediately cancel your current Weiss Research subscription, and in a moment I’ll explain exactly how and why.

That’s nearly $10,000 for you.

All you have to do is decide whether you want to accept it or not.

But don’t worry: If you decide to go for it, I’ll still be there for you through thick and thin. So will Mike Larson, Larry Edelson, Nilus Mattive, Sean Brodrick, and everyone else on our team.

In fact, if you cancel your subscriptions right now, you can get ALL of the services and profit opportunities that ALL of our analysts offer for as long as you want, and STILL get the $9,581 IN ADDITION to all our services.

Unbelievable? Perhaps. But it’s true.

You cancel your subscriptions. You get EVERYTHING we publish today — every service, every recommendation, every video or email.

You get them FOREVER.

Plus, you’ll also get ALL the new Weiss publications we introduce in the future.

And on top of everything, you get “paid” $9,581!

Yes, I agree. It IS hard to believe. But it’s a fact. And by the time you finish reading this letter, you’ll know everything you need to know to claim your $9,581.

It’s an opportunity that I am offering exclusively to a small, select group of our subscribers, but only for TEN DAYS. The opportunity expires promptly at midnight, Saturday, June 18th. I have selected this ten-day window right now because of the dramatic events that have just begun to unfold!

Nationwide, housing prices have just made new lows. Unemployment is rising again. We have an obvious downturn in the U.S. economy.

We see a rapid deterioration in U.S. bank finances.

Plus, we are facing landmark budget battles in Washington — and a Congress sworn to block any major new bailouts or stimulus schemes.

I don’t want you to be hurt by the fall-out or miss any of the dramatic opportunities this crisis has already begun to generate.

Plus, there’s another, very practical reason I have limited this offer to a small group of investors and strictly for this ten-day window: Because of the mixed impact this kind of monumental give-away can have on my business.

I’ve been running this company without interruption for 40 years straight, and if you consider the legacy of my father’s companies before me, we have an 80-year Weiss family tradition of guiding investors to safety and wealth building opportunities.  

I’m in great health and have a solid team of successors to keep the business going for decades to come.

So now let me explain the new kind of relationship we can have and how it works:

It’s my Weiss Inner Circle.

My Inner Circle is the most intimate, most elite, and most private group of friends and clients among our entire family of 400,000 readers and subscribers.

The idea is very straightforward: You get every newsletter, every VIP trading service, every rating, every research report, and EVERY PROFIT OPPORTUNITY that ALL of the Weiss divisions currently have to offer.

You get every single Weiss publication we launch in the future. You get them for as long as we publish them — and as long as you want them.

You get all that FOR LIFE — for less than the cost of just ONE YEAR of those services.

You’ll receive our in-depth monthly investment newsletters — the widely acclaimed Safe Money Report, Real Wealth Report, Income Superstars, Crisis Profit Hunter and Asia Stock Alert.

You’ll get our high-end global VIP trading services, including Emerging Market Winners, International ETF Trader, Red-Hot Global Resources, and Crisis Trader.

You’ll be welcomed with open arms to our million-dollar portfolios, which, with this rare exception we’re making for you now, are CLOSED to all new investors!

They include our Million-Dollar Contrarian Portfolio, our Million-Dollar Rapid Growth Portfolio and our Weiss Million-Dollar Ratings Portfolio.

To underscore my confidence in these investment approaches, I have invested $1 million of my own money in each one! And you can not only track what I do with my own money but actually buy or sell BEFORE I do.

You’ll get our fast-paced, ultrahigh-profit-potential options research services, including Resource Windfall Trader, LEAPS Options Alert, and World Currency Trader.

Perhaps most exciting of all, you’ll be among the first to get the new Weiss service we’re getting ready to launch in a few weeks — not to mention all the new ones we introduce in the months to come.

Plus, There’s One Big Extra Bonus
You’ll Receive That No One Else Will.

You see, up until now, whenever our analysts in Asia, Europe, Latin America or right here in the U.S. have come across major profit opportunities in certain, unique small, but innovative companies, I’ve told them NOT to recommend them.

As you might imagine, this has frustrated the hell out of our analysts who find precious little gems they’d love to recommend to their subscribers.

Still, I have drawn a line in the sand on this issue. We simply cannot recommend these investments to thousands of investors. It would make it difficult for investors to get in — or out — at a fair price.

And that’s a shame — because as you know, it’s these smaller companies that can often post some of the most explosive gains!

The great news is, you can have full access to these kinds of recommendations as a member of my Weiss Inner Circle!

Since my Weiss Inner Circle is a very intimate, VIP group, I have given our analysts the green light to recommend these special opportunities exclusively to Weiss Inner Circle members.

This way, savvy investors like you can take advantage of these stellar, extremely high profit potential companies all over the world.

The profits from just this one benefit ALONE could cover the entire cost of membership in my Weiss Inner Circle.

In addition,

You’ll Be Among the Very First to
Get the Brand-New Service We’re
Launching THIS Month!

It’s devoted to an extremely high-powered new investment vehicle.

We’ll give you the opportunity to try it out before virtually everyone else in the world.

And then when we launch it to the general public, it will cost at least $2,500 PER YEAR. But it will be yours FOR LIFE with your membership in my Weiss Inner Circle.

And there’s more.

In recent months, we have inaugurated some incredibly valuable services and offered them FIRST to Weiss Inner Circle members.

For example, members of our Weiss Inner Circle were the first to gain unlimited access to the proprietary research we have on 40,000 companies and investments.

That includes every public company in the U.S., ranging from the smallest upstart to the largest blue chip. Plus, it also includes every exchange traded fund (ETF) and mutual fund.

We also cover nearly every U.S. bank, credit union, and insurance company.

And all of this research is based on the objective ratings we originally developed.

If you want our research on any institution, you can get it instantly. If you want reports on a hundred institutions of your choice, they’re yours.

Or if you want our help to SEARCH through the strongest among THOUSANDS of institutions, that’s also a part of your membership.

Grab our research as often as you like …

Claim as many reports as you like …

There are absolutely NO LIMITATIONS!

The more investments you have, the more banks or insurers you do business with, and the more you use this incredibly timely, accurate resource, the more profitable it could be for you.

Value: Immense and unlimited!

And there’s another very unique benefit to my Weiss Inner Circle — a benefit that flows directly and naturally from our 80-year history. It’s the Weiss Family Program, which I’ll explain to you in just a moment.

But …

Please Don’t Underestimate the
Exclusive Value of This Membership.

I will never send this invitation to the general public.

I am sending this invitation exclusively to our most loyal subscribers, representing only a small fraction of our readers. And we have set aside only a very tiny number of Weiss Inner Circle memberships — enough for only 2% of our loyal subscribers.

So I am asking you not share this invitation with anyone else.

Now, if you know me, you know I devote a lot of my time and heart to helping the average investor. So I’d love to help everyone if I could. But since many of the investments made available to our Inner Circle members are often smaller special opportunities, we MUST strictly limit the number of memberships we make available.

That’s why I’d like you to keep this to yourself and your closest family members only.

Most important, I recommend that you NOT wait until the end of this ten-day window. Membership is first come first served. If all the available memberships are taken BEFORE the last day, we will close the doors sooner.

In other words, the BEST time to collect your $9,581 is right now.

So now let me explain precisely how you can effectively get paid $9,581 — and at the same time cancel your Weiss Research subscriptions.

Remember what I said at the outset: A membership in the Weiss Inner Circle costs LESS than one year of the services that members receive.

You can get a lifetime membership in all our investment newsletters … all our fast-paced ETF and stock trading services … all of our million-dollar portfolios … all of our extreme high-profit-potential options services … PLUS unlimited access to our research on all 40,000 companies based on the ratings we originally developed.

And you get it all for LESS than the DISCOUNTED price of what you’d pay for a single year.

On top of that, you get all the Weiss publications we will launch in the future.

In the first year alone, you’ll immediately save a whopping $9,581! That’s how I “pay” you this money immediately.

If you got only ONE YEAR of our services and nothing more, you’d already have a huge benefit — nearly $10,000.

But that’s just the beginning …

By the second year, you’ll have saved $27,983.

By year five, you will have saved $83,189!

And in year ten, your total savings will add up to a whopping $175,199!

WITHOUT even including the value of the new services we’re going to be adding — typically a few per year.

In this letter, I’m going to tell you about many of the services you will get, including a few that sometimes go for large triple-digit gains.

But before I do, I want to make sure you understand the context.

It’s important to point out that those large triple-digit gains are NOT always possible, and you should NOT go into any of our services with the expectation that they are the norm.

Normally, most investors are thrilled to bank single- and double-digit profits, and so are we.

And typically, it’s only when great events make markets more volatile that it’s possible to make the far larger gains.

The recent huge rises in oil, gold and other commodity prices are good examples. So is the dramatic decline of the U.S. dollar recently. The collapse of major banks in 2008-2009 also provided some unique megaprofit opportunities. And with the U.S. economy now weakening, with a big budget battle looming and major new global money flows on the immediate horizon, we anticipate similar — or bigger — market moving events ahead.

But it’s also important to remember that all investments involve risk of loss. Nobody I know — including our analysts, who I feel are among the best in the world — can win 100% of the time. Losses, even losing streaks, come with the territory.

The good news is that, with expert guidance and prudent risk management, the historic events we’re now seeing in the U.S. economy, the currency markets and in commodities offer us opportunities that other generations of investors could only dream about. With that in mind, let me tell you about the first new service we’re going to be adding THIS MONTH.

It’s by the world’s most consistently successful trader I have known or probably ever will know. And what’s unique about it is that he HAS been a consistent big winner year after year.

I can’t reveal his name right now. But when I do reveal it this month, you’ll probably recognize him instantly since he’s been such a regular guest on CNBC, Fox News, CNN … and because he’s been quoted so often in the most widely respected websites, journals and blogs all over the world.

What many people do NOT know about him is that he’s been making recommendations to a very small, private group of investors who could have used them to make a fortune.

His track record since he began in 2004 through May of this year, which we’ve verified trade by trade, shows a total return — including winners and losers — of 1,133.2% — enough to make you more than 11 times richer!

If you had started with $10,000, you could now have over $120,000. If you had invested $25,000, you could now have over $300,000. And if you had started with $100,000, you’d now have over $1.2 million.

An astonishing 69% of trades were winners — and the AVERAGE return on each winner was 87.4% — nearly a double, while the average loss on losing trades was only 32%.

Of course, past performance is no guaranty of future success because the vehicles he uses and market conditions can change. But I have personally been getting his trading signals; and I’ve seen, in real time, how consistently accurate they’ve been.

That’s important. And it’s why we’ve decided to add a new service he’ll be running to our Weiss Inner Circle this month.

Normally, investors would pay up to $5,000 for his trading signals, and even if we decide to offer a discount for Charter members, they will still pay close to $2,500 — for one year. But as a member of my Weiss Inner Circle, you will get them as part of your lifetime membership.

As a member of my Weiss Inner Circle, you will also get a lifetime membership in Mike Larson’s LEAPS Options Alert.

In most respects, LEAPS options — or simply LEAPS — are just like any other stock option. They’re generally inexpensive. And their purchase offers you virtually unlimited profit potential with your risk on each trade strictly limited to their cost plus a small broker commission.

But LEAPS give you a critical advantage that ordinary options do not: They can give you far more TIME to work in your favor — up to THREE YEARS! While most other options expire in just a few months, you can buy LEAPS right now that won’t expire until 2014!

This makes LEAPS excellent vehicles for two goals that are especially critical today:

  • To serve as “crash insurance,” helping to PROTECT your portfolio against losses; and
  • To GROW your wealth rapidly — especially helpful in declining markets.

Take Phase I of this great debt crisis, for instance: Had you purchased long-term LEAPS on each of the stocks we warned you about well in advance — the very same stocks we NAMED as candidates for failure — you could have banked …

How To Be Thrifty At The Petrol Pump

June 12th, 2011

Petrol prices are outrageously high and likely to stay there. This is a factor out of our control, so the only thing left to do to get the expense of traveling under some kind of check and to stretch our money as far as possible. There are instances where using your credit card can save you money or get a discount per litre. This may mean if you dive a lot that credit card may be your best credit card to use. However, you have to monitor how you use it in order to receive optimal benefits.

What Credit Cards Can Do For You

If petrol prices are a major consideration for you, before you submit a credit card application sit down and do a comprehensive credit card comparison. Decide on the benefits which are most important to you. For example:

  • Are you willing to pay a slightly higher interest rate for a generous rewards program that offers rebates or rewards on petrol purchases?
  • Calculate your petrol usage per month. If you choose to put this expense on a credit card, will you be able to pay the balance off before the end of the billing cycle in order to avoid high interest rates?
  • Do the petrol pumps in your area offer any kind of reward program for their affiliate or branded card with better benefits? There could be a reward program in place or it may also be a cashback credit card which will save you more money. Study each card and use a spread sheet, if necessary, to list the pro and cons. Compare interest rates and rewards to find the right combination for you.

What To Watch Out For

Using credit cards at the petrol pump can be a great way to keep track of petrol consumption with documentation for tax purposes. Since you will be buying petrol anyway, why not earn rebates or rewards? Also, it is very convenient to be able to pay at a petrol pump without ever having to go inside the establishment. Plus, you don’t have to worry about having cash on hand. You can take advantage of a price dip even if you don’t have the cash available.

However, if you carry a balance over from month to month, this might not be a good idea for you. The interest rates alone will make that expensive petrol even more expensive. Credit cards with a rewards program will typically have a higher interest rate. Calculations in this regard a very important, as the higher rate may not offset the savings. All-in-all, you are the only one who can make the decision if a credit card for petrol is worth it, but it can be an effective way to be thrifty at the petrol pump.

ETF

How To Be Thrifty At The Petrol Pump

June 12th, 2011

Petrol prices are outrageously high and likely to stay there. This is a factor out of our control, so the only thing left to do to get the expense of traveling under some kind of check and to stretch our money as far as possible. There are instances where using your credit card can save you money or get a discount per litre. This may mean if you dive a lot that credit card may be your best credit card to use. However, you have to monitor how you use it in order to receive optimal benefits.

What Credit Cards Can Do For You

If petrol prices are a major consideration for you, before you submit a credit card application sit down and do a comprehensive credit card comparison. Decide on the benefits which are most important to you. For example:

  • Are you willing to pay a slightly higher interest rate for a generous rewards program that offers rebates or rewards on petrol purchases?
  • Calculate your petrol usage per month. If you choose to put this expense on a credit card, will you be able to pay the balance off before the end of the billing cycle in order to avoid high interest rates?
  • Do the petrol pumps in your area offer any kind of reward program for their affiliate or branded card with better benefits? There could be a reward program in place or it may also be a cashback credit card which will save you more money. Study each card and use a spread sheet, if necessary, to list the pro and cons. Compare interest rates and rewards to find the right combination for you.

What To Watch Out For

Using credit cards at the petrol pump can be a great way to keep track of petrol consumption with documentation for tax purposes. Since you will be buying petrol anyway, why not earn rebates or rewards? Also, it is very convenient to be able to pay at a petrol pump without ever having to go inside the establishment. Plus, you don’t have to worry about having cash on hand. You can take advantage of a price dip even if you don’t have the cash available.

However, if you carry a balance over from month to month, this might not be a good idea for you. The interest rates alone will make that expensive petrol even more expensive. Credit cards with a rewards program will typically have a higher interest rate. Calculations in this regard a very important, as the higher rate may not offset the savings. All-in-all, you are the only one who can make the decision if a credit card for petrol is worth it, but it can be an effective way to be thrifty at the petrol pump.

ETF

Key Support & Resistance Levels for Financials, SP500, Silver and Gold

June 9th, 2011

During the past 4 months we have seen the financial sector (banks) under selling pressure. With real estate prices continuing to fall and foreclosures picking up speed again investors have not been that interested in holding bank stocks. And we all know that without the financial sector moving higher we cannot expect the broad market to make any significant moves higher either.

If you take a look at the financial sector ETF XLF you will notice that it’s now trading near a major support level (fair value) where most shares changed hands in the past. With this sector sliding 13% from the highs in February and the fact that it’s making a parabolic drop into a support zone I can’t help but think a bounce is very likely to form soon.

XLF Financial Sector ETF – Daily Chart

SP500 Futures – 10 Minute Chart
With the financial sector nearing major support and the SP500 staring to show signs of a bottom forming I will admit my heart is starting to pound in excitement for an entry point. I am really hoping that this week we see another sharp drop in the stocks which should spikes the volatility index up (VIX) to 21 or higher. If we can see this take place, then I will be taking a long position to catch a 2-15 days bounce in the broad market.

The chart of the past 10 trading sessions below shows a price and volume pattern which typically leads market bottoms. I’m keeping a close on things these days…

Silver 2 Hour Chart
Silver took a big hair cut last month falling from $50 down to $33 per ounce. Ever since then it has been trying to form a base which will act as the next launch pad for higher prices. So far it is looking good but there is a key resistance level to breakthrough before fireworks. Keep your eye on the silver bullet.


Gold 2 Hour Chart

Gold is back trading up near its high but is starting to struggle with resistance (sellers). We could easily see gold pullback to the $1520 area before taking another run at resistance.

Mid-Week Update Conclusion:
In short, I feel investors are getting very nervous because of the 6 week sell off in stocks. There have been some technical support levels broken on the SP500 and other indexes and its these broken levels which have investors running for the door. The thing is, this type of selling happens every year and generally 2 -3 times. During a bull market I like to see fear in the eyes of investors. Until we are proven wrong about buying extreme oversold dips, they continue to be my focus.

Also if the financial sector can find a bottom and start to rally, then we will see higher stock prices across the board in the coming weeks. I am currently neutral on metals, oil and the dollar. But am getting bullish on financials and the SP500 as they move lower.

Get my free weekly reports here: http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/trade-money-emotions.php

Chris Vermeulen

Read more here:
Key Support & Resistance Levels for Financials, SP500, Silver and Gold




Chris Vermeulen is a full time daytrader and swing trader specializing in trading (NYSE:GLD), (NYSE:GDX), XGD.TO, (NYSE:SLV) and (NYSE:USO). I provide my trading charts, market insight and trading signals to members of my newsletter service. If you have any questions feel free to send me an email: Chris@TheGoldAndOilGuy.com This article is intended solely for information purposes. The opinions are those of the author only. Please conduct further research and consult your financial advisor before making any investment/trading decision. No responsibility can be accepted for losses that may result as a consequence of trading on the basis of this analysis.

Commodities, ETF, Real Estate

3 Ways to Protect Yourself from a Stock Market Sell-Off

June 7th, 2011

3 Ways to Protect Yourself from a Stock Market Sell-Off

The S&P 500 Index has been up nearly 92% since March 6, 2009. This impressive run has many market participants cheering for the rally to continue indefinitely. But as exciting as it may be to reference that 92% return, it is not very important, except for investors who bought into the market on March 6, 2009. Most investors were invested in the market before that day and many had ridden the entire wave down from the October 2007 highs. To date, these investors have recovered a significant portion of their losses, but are still far from whole.

Optimism regarding the global economic recovery has waned recently, as statistics in a variety of areas have worsened, helping to push stock markets lower. Unemployment has increased to 9.1%. Housing data is consistently bad, as the inventory of unsold homes and pending foreclosures fails to diminish. Home prices in some parts of the country are back to levels last seen in the year 2000, causing many Americans to feel less wealthy overall.

The Federal Reserve has stated it will let “QE2,” the practice of buying U.S. Treasury bonds to add liquidity to the money supply and credit markets, end in June and has no plans for QE3. QE1 and QE2 have been critically important in helping the economy recover. Meanwhile China's economy, one of the key drivers in the global economic recovery and the second largest economy in the world, has been slowing down. We are quite dependant on China, not just as a trading partner, but also as a lender, through their purchases of U.S. Treasury bonds. Simply put, China's money has helped fuel our recovery.

We can hold on to optimism, but the pragmatic view is that we may have already seen the peak in this economic recovery and in the stock market. The S&P 500 topped most recently on April 29, 2010 with a high close of 1,363.61 and has pulled back 3.7% since then to the June 6, 2011 close of 1,286.17. This brings the index back to levels first attained in January and February, conceding much of the year-to-date gains.

Without a catalyst to improve the economy and send markets higher, it is prudent for investors to position for a correction, and a potentially sustained one at that. Market participants are not gun-shy these days, so additional poor economic data could send more money to the sidelines to sit out a sell-off and wait for measurable improvements in the economy.

Does this mean you should sell your stock market holdings? Maybe, but not necessarily… What this does mean is you need to protect your gains and preserve capital in case a more protracted retracement does occur.

Consider these three exchange-traded funds (ETFs):

ETF, Uncategorized

Charting the Recent Weakness in Financials XLF

June 7th, 2011

Financial stocks have seen relative weakness with companies in other sectors, as evidenced by the lackluster performance and recent support breakdowns in the leading Financial ETF – XLF.

Let’s take a Daily then Weekly view to learn lessons from the structure, and see current reference levels to watch.

First, the Daily Chart (notice the “Arc”):

Let’s start first with a trading lesson in terms of the divergences at the high in February ahead of the reversal.

This is a good reference example of how negative volume and momentum (3/10 Oscillator) divergences served as broad non-confirmations of the new recovery high at $17.00 per share.

Notice the string of five doji (reversal) candles that formed into the upper Bollinger Band at this time.

If you see this pattern in real time in the future – reversal candles into the upper Bollinger Band when price is undercut by lengthy negative divergences – take profits quickly.

Aggressive traders could consider setting up a reversal play into this structure or – preferably – on confirmed price breakdowns of rising trendlines or moving averages.  If you miss the perfect entry – we all do – there’s almost always two or three good entries into a swing move like this.

I’m showing two of them in terms of the first breakdown of the rising 20 day EMA  with an impulse candle on February 22.  The other safe opportunity was on the breakdown under the rising 50 day EMA on March 14/15.

Price “flagged” (bear flag) its way down to the target level of the 200d SMA and November 2010 price high, which I showed in the post:  “Triangulating FAS Challenges Critical Support” (while FAS is different than XLF, the structure on the chart was similar at the target test level).

After a four-day rally into EMA target resistance off the critical support level, sellers pushed the financial ETF back under the rising 200d SMA and swing low, creating a “failure to rally” signal (or successful breakdown – depending on your perspective).

It wasn’t just the 200d SMA that was important at the $15.45 level – it was a long-standing rising weekly trendline on which price initially supported… that broke last week:

Starting with the June 2009 swing low, we can draw a trendline up that connects three additional swing lows in the context of the recent recovery/rally.

Price broke down under that rising trendline last week – at the same time it sliced through the rising 200d SMA.

Cutting right to the chase, the XLF ETF takes a bearish confirmation turn as long as it’s under this trendline and the 200d SMA – both currently converging at $15.60/$15.80.

The classic chart expectation would be to look for further price deterioration, and the alternate scenario would be to expect a bullish surprise or short-squeeze should the ETF rally back above $16.00 (to be safe and to have an easy-to-remember reference level).

Lower targets include the $14.30 area (November 2010 low) and beyond that is the 2010 “triple-tested” lows at $13.20.

In other words, unless buyers pull off a big surge to the upside soon and bust this recent bearish development, the “path of least resistance” (reference my Wyckoff Imagery Lesson last week) is now to these downside levels.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com

Follow Corey on Twitter:  http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade

Corey’s new book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available!

Read more here:
Charting the Recent Weakness in Financials XLF

ETF, Uncategorized

Don’t Buy These High-Flying Stocks Until You Read This

June 7th, 2011

Don't Buy These High-Flying Stocks Until You Read This

If you're a skeptic, then you probably get a little nervous when you see lots of headlines about a stock or industry that are all positive. To the skeptical investor, this suggests an investment has peaked and is set to drop. Well, it's like that right now in one popular segment of the energy sector. These stocks have gotten lots of press lately because, as a group, they've risen nearly 60% in the past 12 months. The best ones have doubled or tripled during that time.

Investment dollars have been flowing to this energy source because many people consider it the best available alternative to oil. It has enjoyed high demand globally, particularly in China, where it accounts for as much as 70% of energy consumption.

I'm referring to coal, and I think it's an investment to be wary of right now.

Coal's on my “watch list” not just because it seems overly popular, but because of a disturbing trend — high-priced, potentially unprofitable acquisitions. The coal industry has been steadily consolidating for the past several years, and the price tags for the companies being acquired are often excessive. This type of dealmaking is a bearish indicator because it can severely hinder the bottom line for a company.

Here's a prime example: On May 2, the second largest coal producer in the United States, Arch Coal Inc. (NYSE: ACI) bought West Virginia-based International Coal Group Inc (NYSE: ICO) for $3.4 billion, or 11 times International Coal's projected 2011 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA). Arch probably far overpaid for this acquisition, shelling out $14.60 a share for International Coal when its stock was only trading for $11 a share (more than a 30% premium). Moreover, the deal was based on optimistic EBITDA estimates International Coal will only be able to achieve if it has its best year ever. Mind you, this is a company that lost money in three of the past five years leading up to 2010.

Here's another example… On January 29, the third largest U.S. coal producer, Alpha Natural Resources (NYSE: ANR), bought Massey Energy (NYSE: MEE) for $69.33 per share — more than a 20% premium at the time. The deal totaled $7.1 billion, or about eight times Massey's 2011 EBITDA, a multiple that initially seems a bit more reasonable than the one paid in the Arch Coal-International Coal deal. However, it's based on a very ambitious 2011 EBITDA projection of $924.6 million. To achieve that, Massey will have to more than triple EBITDA from $267.3 million last year.

That doesn't seem terribly likely, especially now that overall economic growth appears to be slowing — or that Massey slashed its 2011 guidance barely a month after the merger.

Post-deal stock performance for Arch Coal and Alpha Natural Resources suggests a downturn in coal is already underway. On May 2 when the Arch Coal-International Coal deal was announced, Arch Coal was trading for $33.53 per share. Now? Not even $27 a share — about a 20% loss in just over a month. Since the January 29 acquisition of Massey Energy, Alpha Natural Resources is down from $57.88 per share to about $51 a share — a 12% drop. The industry as a whole is off 7% in the past month.

ETF, Uncategorized

How to capture those key investing moments …

June 7th, 2011

Nilus MattiveIt seems like only yesterday that I was writing to you about my daughter Vela’s first birthday … and using the occasion to make the case that dollar-cost averaging was a terrific way to approach the stock market.

Of course, it wasn’t yesterday. In fact, this weekend my little girl will be turning four! And while the party is certainly going to be a lot of fun, it’s bittersweet because it’s yet another reminder of just how quickly time passes by.

Meanwhile, we have seen quite a wild ride in the markets just over Vela’s relatively short lifetime, too.

That’s why I want to spend a little time revisiting that strategy of dollar-cost averaging — to see if we can still safely call it one of the most boringly profitable investment approaches available … one that puts the passage of time to work for us rather than against us.

Dollar-Cost Averaging:
Cruise Control for Your Portfolio

The idea with dollar-cost averaging is relatively simple: You buy equal dollar amounts of the same investment on a predetermined schedule.

Please note the italics in that last sentence. Dollar-cost averaging IS NOT buying a fixed number of shares on a regular basis. In fact, it is quite the opposite. Here’s why …

Let’s say you’ve decided to invest $10,000 in XYZ Corp. Rather than deploying the entire amount at one time, you might instead opt to purchase $1,000 of XYZ stock on the first day of each of the next 10 months.

What’s the logic behind this approach? Well, you can expect just about any stock’s price to vary substantially over a ten-month period. So, when the price is higher, your $1,000 will buy fewer shares; when the price dips, your $1,000 will buy more shares.

In other words, buying equal dollar amounts over time allows you to reduce your risk to a stock’s short-term price movements, automatically encouraging you to buy more when prices are lower and less when prices are higher.

It also removes much of the emotion from the investing process. You’ve already committed to buying the stock at regular intervals, regardless of market conditions.

And because you’re doing this automatically, it doesn’t require more than a few minutes of your time (if any at all!).

Advertisement

Okay, But How Does This Strategy
Fare When the Road Gets Bumpy?

Obviously, buying bits of stock as the market continually rises would work just fine … even if it meant you missed out on some additional upside by not putting as much in as quickly as possible.

But what about the other scenario — the one where the market really zigs and zags, moves sideways, or even goes lower over a long period of time?

Well, again, there is perhaps no better example of this kind of action than the last few years!

Just take a look at a chart of the S&P 500 since June 12, 2007 — the day my daughter was born …

S&P 500 Index

As you can see, despite the huge declines and rallies, the broad U.S. stock market index is still lower than it was four years ago.

And yes, if you’d had very good timing, you could have clearly been making a fortune during every one of those major moves … but what if you didn’t have perfect timing? Or if you had BAD timing?

That’s where dollar-cost averaging comes in. Let’s look at what would have happened if you simply followed this approach over the last four years — investing an equal amount of money in the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) at the beginning of every single month.

It’s a long table, but I want to show you exactly how this works …

Table

As you can see, by putting $1,000 into a broad-based ETF each and every month over the last four years, you would have spent $49,000 to buy a total of 441 shares.

Based on the SPY’s recent price of 131.73, that total stake would currently be worth $58,144 — a total profit of $9,144!

That’s an 18.66 percent return over the four years … even though the market actually FELL over the same time period!

The reason, as I mentioned earlier, is simple: While you would have bought some shares when the market was at its peak, you also would have forced yourself to buy a bunch of shares when the market was much lower than it is today.

Now, does this mean that careful timing or superior stock selection couldn’t have given you even BETTER returns?

No way!

But in the case of buying individual stocks, it’s worth noting that you can apply dollar-cost averaging there just as easily as you can with broad-based ETFs.

In addition, you are also using this same general concept whenever you reinvest your dividend payments or make regular contributions to the same funds in a retirement plan such as a 401(k).

Of course, whether or not you decide to put dollar-cost averaging to work in your portfolio, the important part is remembering that while time often passes more quickly than we might like, the key to success — in both investing and life — is finding a way to capture those key moments that happen along the way.

Best wishes,

Nilus

Read more here:
How to capture those key investing moments …

Commodities, ETF, Mutual Fund, Uncategorized