Posts Tagged ‘election’

Obama Lied To The People To Get Elected

July 22nd, 2014

peggy-joseph-300x257Mac Slavo: Remember Peggy Joseph?

She’s the woman who swooned over Barack Obama’s every word and was so excited about the fact that all her problems would be solved once he became President that she broke down in tears. Read more…

Economy, Financials, Government, Healthcare, Politics

Economy: Hostess Adds To The Massive Tsunami of Post-Election Layoffs

November 18th, 2012

Michael Snyder: Can you hear that sound?  It is the sound of the air being let out of the economy.  Since the election, there has been a massive tsunami of layoffs and business failures.  Read more…

Economy, Government, Markets

Election Fraud: Accounts Of Voting Machines Turning Mitt Romney Votes Into Barack Obama Votes

November 17th, 2012

Michael Snyder: Why is the mainstream media saying nothing about election fraud even though there are eyewitness reports from all over the country of voting machines turning Romney Read more…

Economy, Government

22 Signs That Voter Fraud Is Wildly Out Of Control And The Election Was A Sham

November 13th, 2012

Michael Snyder: After what we have seen this November, how is any American ever supposed to trust the integrity of our elections ever again?  There were over 70,000 reports of voting Read more…

Economy, Government, Markets

Economy: Post-Election Firings and Layoffs Surge

November 10th, 2012

 The victory by Barack Obama on election night has resulted in a huge wave of firings and layoffs all over America.  A large number of businesses seem to have suddenly Read more…


America Has Shifted To The Left And The Culture War Is Over

November 8th, 2012

Michael Snyder: Election day 2012 showed once again that America is moving steadily to the left.  Yes, Barack Obama defeated Mitt Romney, but the underlying dynamics run much deeper than that – especially when you take a look at social issues.  Older voters are more Read more…

Economy, Government

Election 2012: Thousands Of Shocking Threats Of Violence By Barack Obama Supporters

November 6th, 2012

Michael Snyder: On social media websites such as Twitter and Facebook, thousands of threats of violence were posted by supporters of Barack Obama on the evening prior to the election.  If you doubt this, just go on Twitter and do a search for keywords such as “Romney riot”, Read more…

Economy, Government

Obama and Romney Election Forecasts From Academics, Market Analysts and Mainstream Media

November 5th, 2012

Nadeem Walayat: The opinion polls continue to paint a picture of a close race between Obama and Romney going into the final two days of campaigning ahead of Tuesdays election. Read more…

Economy, Government

Why It Makes No Difference Whether Barack Obama or Mitt Romney Wins The 2012 Election

November 4th, 2012

Mac Slavo: We’re days out from a Presidential election whose outcome will determine the future of the United States – or will it? Read more…

Economy, Government

Could Hackers Decide The Election By Changing The Voting Results In Ohio?

October 29th, 2012

Could this be the first presidential election in U.S. history to be decided by hackers?  In recent years, hackers all over the globe have become increasingly sophisticated.  Meanwhile, our computer-based voting systems have repeatedly been shown to be extremely vulnerable.  Read more…

Economy, Government

Are Operatives From Both Parties Systematically Committing Election Fraud?

October 22nd, 2012

The election is still more than two weeks away, and already a tremendous amount of evidence has emerged that operatives from both major political parties have been committing election fraud.  There have been reports of dead people being registered to vote, of voter registration Read more…

Economy, Government

50 Crazy Things That Barack Obama Supporters Are Threatening To Do If Mitt Romney Wins

October 18th, 2012

Will cities all over America erupt in violence if Mitt Romney wins the election?  Right now we are probably witnessing the most divisive campaign in modern U.S. history, and both sides Read more…

Economy, Government

Why Presidential Election Results Could Cause Massive Riots In The U.S.?

October 12th, 2012

Will the most divisive campaign in modern American history culminate in massive riots in our major cities?  Right now, supporters of Barack Obama and supporters of Mitt Romney are both pinning all of their hopes on a victory on November 6th.  The race for the presidency is extremely tight, Read more…

Economy, Government

16 Critical Economic Issues That Obama And Romney Avoided During The Debate

October 5th, 2012

Did you watch the presidential debate on Wednesday night?  It is absolutely amazing how they can have an hour and a half debate about the economy and say so little.  It seemed like both candidates were falling all over each other wanting to talk about how much they value education Read more…

Economy, Government

What the Presidential Cycle Could Mean for Your Portfolio

May 3rd, 2011

What the Presidential Cycle Could Mean for Your Portfolio

In the past 100 years, a clear pattern has been in place. The stock market has tended to trade in a similar fashion in each of the four years of a presidential cycle — that is to say, first-year results are similar from term to term, and so on. The logic behind such rational price action is quite simple: Presidential economic policies tend to follow predictable patterns that boost the chances a President (or his party) will stand a better chance of re-election.

For example, the first-year of a new term is characterized by policies that represent a break from a predecessor's policies, usually based on populist-oriented policies that were made during the campaign season. This “feel good” environment has, on average, generated an 8.8% gain in the first year of a new presidential cycle, according to veteran Wall Street strategist Mark Hulbert.

But once in office, presidents realize they will eventually need to rein in any policies that may lead to economic problems down the road. So by their second year in office, they are often looking to raise taxes, close loopholes, veto pork-barrel spending and enact other tough love measures. Think of Ronald Reagan's second term, when he agreed to a series of tax hikes in 1986. He would never have done so if his party had been faced with an imminent presidential election. That's why markets have historically been flat in the second year of a presidential term.

By year three, the President realizes voters will soon be thinking of the next election. In the ensuing months, the opposition party will step up its critical rhetoric and the field of potential candidates will start to come into focus. In response, the President will offer up a set of stimulative measures that will hopefully have the economy on a solid growth path a year later when the primaries and the election actually takes place. That helps explain why the stock market rises a whopping 15.5%, on average, in year three of the election cycle.

By the final year of a presidential term, the market tends to rise a respectable, though slightly subpar, 4.1%. The implications of why that is the case is unclear to me. It's important to note that these cycles are calculated from September 30 to September 30, as that is the date generally regarded as the point when who the next president will be has been largely decided. It also coincides with the government's fiscal year, when various policies take effect.


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