Archive

Posts Tagged ‘commodities’

What Is Money When The System Collapses?

November 17th, 2012

100 Insightful Futures Traders Worth Following On Twitter

October 3rd, 2012

Jared Cummans: Futures investing is one of the safest and most effective ways to add exposure to risky assets like commodities. Futures allow users to limit their downside risk while also affording the opportunity of making speculative calls on all kinds of assets. But keeping up Read more…

Commodities, Economy

Casey Summit: How Investors Can Protect Themselves In A Politicized Economy (GFI, PVG)

September 17th, 2012

JT Long: Right on the heels of the Republican and Democratic National Conventions, the recent Casey Research Summit in Carlsbad, California—cosponsored by SprottGlobal—focused on a timely theme: “Navigating the Politicized Economy.” The somber revelations Read more…

Gold, Precious Metals

Weak Second Quarter For Linn Energy Not A Cause For Concern (LINE, DOW, RDS, CVX, EPD)

August 27th, 2012

Elliott Gue: Linn Energy LLC’s (NASDAQ:LINE) second-quarter results fell short of expectations, prompting management to reduce its full-year forecast for Read more…

Commodities, Natural Gas

Top 100 Options Trading Blogs

August 24th, 2012

Jared Cummans: Options investing is one of the safest and most effective ways to add exposure to risky assets like commodities. Options allows users to limit their downside risk while also affording the opportunity of making speculative calls on all kinds of assets Read more…

Financials, Investing Guide, OPTIONS

A Managed Approach For Investment Portfolio Risk

April 5th, 2012

Is your investment portfolio more like a roller coaster with no exit strategy, just going round and round and up and down, arriving right back to where it started? Don’t just go along for the ride, use a managed approach to limit downside risk Read more…

Commodities, ETF, Uncategorized

The New Oil Dynamics

October 17th, 2011

The oil market changed back in 2009, but most Americans did not notice. That was the year, for the first time, China temporarily surpassed the United States as Saudi Arabia’s biggest and most important Read more…

Uncategorized

ETFs Turn Exotic – Protect yourself

October 17th, 2011

Investments that do not move in tandem with U.S. stocks present opportunities for diversification and potential performance Read more…

Commodities, ETF, OPTIONS, Real Estate, Uncategorized

GOP To Fed: Let Economy Fail

September 21st, 2011

The headline above is not what GOP congressional leaders actually said today to Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke, but they might just as well have used that precise language in the letter CNBC reports they sent to the Fed. According to CNBC, the letter instructed Read more…

Uncategorized

Blue Gold…Still Shining

June 14th, 2011

About five years ago, I launched my investment service, Mayer’s Special Situations with a special report, entitled Blue Gold.

The report laid out the compelling long-term case for investing in water-related stocks. The stocks I recommended in that report have performed extremely well, far outpacing the S&P 500 Index. But the investment backdrop for the water sector has become even more compelling today than it was five years ago.

Nalco Holdings (NYSE:NLC), a water treatment company I recommended in the Blue Gold report has been an excellent performer. It is up about 60% since my recommendation, while the S&P 500 has gained no ground whatsoever. I expect this long-term outperformance to continue. Recently, The Financial Times interviewed CEO Erik Fyrwald, who had many interesting comments.

Fyrwald began by saying that water was the “No. 1 issue facing the world.” A few good excerpts:

“I travel about 50% of the time, often into the developing markets, such as China, India, parts of Africa, that are not only water starved today, but increasingly water challenged… their water consumption is rising, while they are water challenged already, and that makes a huge challenge for them…

“I have been going to China and India for 20 years, and 20 years ago – even 10 years ago – the focus on water was minimal. Water treatment and recycling didn’t exist significantly. It was there for industrial global companies that built operations in China or India. But the Indian companies, the Chinese companies, weren’t concerned about water, either cleaning it up for effluent or recycling it. Today, I can tell you that leading Chinese companies and leading India companies are very concerned about water and are starting to adopt very advanced techniques for both cleaning up the water and also the recycling and reuse of the water. That is why we are seeing tremendous growth in those countries…”

Sitting right there in the sweet spot of the Asian water story is Hyflux Ltd., another company I recommended in my report. The stock has done very well, and a big part of the reason is the company’s CEO, Olivia Lum.

She won Ernst & Young’s World Entrepreneur of the Year 2011. Her story is amazing.

She turned the mere $15,000 she started with into one of the largest water treatment companies in the world. The Financial Times profiled her, and included more personal details that I didn’t know.

For example, she was adopted at birth and lived with four other orphans in a tin-roof shack in Kampar, Malaysia. She avoided becoming a child laborer – the fate of many – at the peanut factories and rubber plantations. Instead, she sold papaya from a stall and paid for her own textbooks and bus fare to school. She went on to college in Singapore to study chemistry. Her job out of college was at GlaxoSmithKline, where she studied water treatment. To start Hyflux, she sold her car and small house.

It’s a remarkable story. And her company still is a great investment, as it has huge opportunities in China and India and across the Middle East and North Africa.

Nalco and Hyflux are two of the best companies in what may prove to be one of the very best investment sectors for the next five or ten years.

Regards,

Chris Mayer,
for The Daily Reckoning

Blue Gold…Still Shining originally appeared in the Daily Reckoning. The Daily Reckoning provides over half a million subscribers with literary economic perspective, global market analysis, and contrarian investment ideas.

Read more here:
Blue Gold…Still Shining




The Daily Reckoning is a contrarian e-letter, brought to you by New York Times best-selling authors Bill Bonner and Addison Wiggin since 1999. The DR looks at the economic world-at-large and offers its major players – investors, politicians, economists and the average consumer – some much-needed constructive criticism.

Commodities, Uncategorized

Buy Gold…or Farmland

June 13th, 2011

My friend Brad Farquhar is the co-founder of Assiniboia Capital in Saskatchewan, which invests in farmland there, among other things. He sends the following note:

“Farm Credit Canada, the biggest ag lender in Canada, publishes a province-by-province report on movements in farmland prices in Canada every six months.

“Of course, we track this and are interested in what they have to say. No great surprises in their new data, but we also played around with it to see what else might pop out at us.

“Sometimes in my presentations I show a chart that demonstrates the correlation (within a range) of the price of gold, oil and farmland in Saskatchewan. The correlation is pretty good. Farmland tends to lag a bit because it is a less-liquid asset class and not quoted daily. Also, one acre of farmland is not necessarily substitutable for the next acre the way ounces of gold and barrels of oil are.

“But as the next chart shows, the Sask farmland/gold ratio is getting well outside its traditional range.

The Price of Gold as Measured in Acres of Saskatchewan Farmland

“These things tend to correct themselves, and would do so either by the price of gold coming down or the price of farmland going up. Given the various forces at work in the financial world, I don’t see the price of gold coming down. Which leaves farmland to go up (particularly here in Saskatchewan, where it is still undervalued relative to its productivity).

“With gold held at $1,500, the price of Sask farmland would need to move to $865 per acre just to get back within the normal historical range. The current price is $526 per acre, representing upside of 65%. Of course, we expect gold to move higher too, dragging all other real assets along with it.”

Brad’s firm has been in Saskatchewan farmland since 2005. It’s turned out to be a good call. I have written about Saskatchewan farmland many times in the past…and I have been a longtime advocate of buying farmland. That’s why I’m planning to visit Brad in Regina next month and have a look around. I’ll have more to share with you on all of this soon, as well as ways you can participate.

There are many opportunities in Saskatchewan, which is an agricultural powerhouse. Saskatchewan exports a large percentage of the world’s goods:

  • 67% of world’s lentil
  • 56% of world’s peas
  • 25% of world’s mustard
  • 40% of world’s flaxseed
  • 18% of world’s canola
  • 33% of world’s durum
  • 53% of world’s potash

I remain a big believer in agriculture-focused investments as one of the very best “hard asset” allocations for the decade ahead. Ag investments not only provide a hedge against dollar weakness, they also stand to benefit from extremely favorable supply-demand trends worldwide.

The world needs more food. It won’t be easy to supply it. That’s the kind of trend all investors should crave.

While it’s true that you can’t transport an acre of farmland or spend it as easily as a Krugerrand, neither can you grow lentils on a gold bar. If you have a hard time choosing between the two, buy both.

Regards,

Chris Mayer
for The Daily Reckoning

Buy Gold…or Farmland originally appeared in the Daily Reckoning. The Daily Reckoning provides over half a million subscribers with literary economic perspective, global market analysis, and contrarian investment ideas.

Read more here:
Buy Gold…or Farmland




The Daily Reckoning is a contrarian e-letter, brought to you by New York Times best-selling authors Bill Bonner and Addison Wiggin since 1999. The DR looks at the economic world-at-large and offers its major players – investors, politicians, economists and the average consumer – some much-needed constructive criticism.

Commodities, Uncategorized

The Stocks & Commodity Technical trading Outlook Part I

June 13th, 2011

The coming summer should be exciting for traders! While summer trading generally tends to be slow, this one could be different. A large number of other professional traders I talk with are all feeling the tension building in the market. We all think some big movements are just around the corner and the big question is which way are things going to move?

Depending on your trading style you may be viewing the recent market action as the beginning stages of a bear market (major sell off). A bear market is not necessarily impossible as the U.S. Economy is showing the beginning signs of weakness. The fact that stocks have moved lower for almost 6 weeks straight is a recent reminder that we may not be out of the woods just yet. The recent price action and negative sentiment has been harsh enough to make 99% of traders bearish.

In contrast, some traders may be seeing this market as an oversold dip preparing for a bounce/rally in the bull market which we have been in since 2009. Some traders may see this as a buying opportunity because you are a contrarian. Most contrarians generally want to do the opposite of the masses (herd) who are merely trading purely out of emotional sentiment.

I myself have mixed thoughts on the market at this point in time. I’m not a big picture (long trend forecasting) kind of guy but my trading partner David Banister is great at it. Rather I am a shorter term trader catching extreme sentiment shifts in the market with trades lasting 3-60 days in length. So looking forward 2-5 days I feel as though stocks and commodities are going to bottom and start to head higher for a 2-6% bounce. At that point we need to regroup and analyze how the market got there… Was the buying coming from the herd, institutions, or was it just a short covering rally? Additionally, where are the key resistance levels and did we break through any?

During extreme sentiment shifts in the market we tend to see investments fall out of sync with each other for a few days. I feel the attention will be on stocks and we get a bounce this week. I am expecting commodities to trade relatively flat during the same time period.

OK let’s take a quick look at the charts…

Dollar Index 4 Hour Candles
I feel as though the US Dollar is trying to bottom. It is very possible that we test the May low at which point I would expect another strong bounce and possible multi-month rally. So if the dollar drops to the May lows then we should see higher stocks and commodities, but once the dollar firms up and heads higher it will be game over for risk assets.

Crude Oil Chart – Daily
Oil took a swan dive in early May and has yet to show any signs of moving higher. Actually crude oil is looking more and more bearish as time goes by.

Silver 4 Hour Chart
Silver has formed much of the same pattern that oil has. On a technical basis its pointing to sharply lower prices still. The fact that silver bullion went from an investment to a speculative trading instrument within the past 8 months makes me think it could test the $25 area. The one thing to remember here is that silver is still overall in a bull market. This is a 50/50 guess in my opinion as it nears the apex of this pennant pattern.

Gold 4 Hour Chart
Gold has held up much better than other metals and commodities and I feel that is because it’s still seen at the REAL safe haven. But reviewing the chart Im starting to see bearish price action beginning to take place.

SP500 Futures – 10 Minute Chart Going Back 8 Days
Last week the SP500 continued to show signs of weakness. Any bounce in the market was on light volume and that is because the sellers took a break and let all the small traders buy the market back up. But once the market moved up enough then sellers jumped back in and unloaded their shares.
Last Thursday I sent out an update to members pointing out that lower prices were to be expected. I came to this conclusion because of many data points. Looking at the chart you can see sellers are clearly in control. The SP500 bounces high enough that it reached a key resistance levels going back 5 days. Also the 200 period moving average was at that level. To top that off my sentiment reading for the herd mentality was at a point which sellers like to start dumping their shares again.

Weekly Market Trading Conclusion:
In short, I am getting more bullish for a bounce as the market falls. But once we are into day 3 or 4 of a bounce we must be ready to take profits and/or look for a possible short setup.

Get my free weekly reports here: http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/trade-money-emotions.php

Chris Vermeulen

Read more here:
The Stocks & Commodity Technical trading Outlook Part I




Chris Vermeulen is a full time daytrader and swing trader specializing in trading (NYSE:GLD), (NYSE:GDX), XGD.TO, (NYSE:SLV) and (NYSE:USO). I provide my trading charts, market insight and trading signals to members of my newsletter service. If you have any questions feel free to send me an email: Chris@TheGoldAndOilGuy.com This article is intended solely for information purposes. The opinions are those of the author only. Please conduct further research and consult your financial advisor before making any investment/trading decision. No responsibility can be accepted for losses that may result as a consequence of trading on the basis of this analysis.

Commodities, ETF

CANCEL your Weiss subscriptions and I will “pay” you $9,581!

June 12th, 2011

The powerful economic changes we’ve been warning you about have now begun to hit the U.S. economy where it hurts.

So to help make sure you’re completely ready for the huge volatility ahead, I want to change our relationship in a very fundamental way.

To make that possible, I will “pay” you $9,581 to immediately cancel your current Weiss Research subscription, and in a moment I’ll explain exactly how and why.

That’s nearly $10,000 for you.

All you have to do is decide whether you want to accept it or not.

But don’t worry: If you decide to go for it, I’ll still be there for you through thick and thin. So will Mike Larson, Larry Edelson, Nilus Mattive, Sean Brodrick, and everyone else on our team.

In fact, if you cancel your subscriptions right now, you can get ALL of the services and profit opportunities that ALL of our analysts offer for as long as you want, and STILL get the $9,581 IN ADDITION to all our services.

Unbelievable? Perhaps. But it’s true.

You cancel your subscriptions. You get EVERYTHING we publish today — every service, every recommendation, every video or email.

You get them FOREVER.

Plus, you’ll also get ALL the new Weiss publications we introduce in the future.

And on top of everything, you get “paid” $9,581!

Yes, I agree. It IS hard to believe. But it’s a fact. And by the time you finish reading this letter, you’ll know everything you need to know to claim your $9,581.

It’s an opportunity that I am offering exclusively to a small, select group of our subscribers, but only for TEN DAYS. The opportunity expires promptly at midnight, Saturday, June 18th. I have selected this ten-day window right now because of the dramatic events that have just begun to unfold!

Nationwide, housing prices have just made new lows. Unemployment is rising again. We have an obvious downturn in the U.S. economy.

We see a rapid deterioration in U.S. bank finances.

Plus, we are facing landmark budget battles in Washington — and a Congress sworn to block any major new bailouts or stimulus schemes.

I don’t want you to be hurt by the fall-out or miss any of the dramatic opportunities this crisis has already begun to generate.

Plus, there’s another, very practical reason I have limited this offer to a small group of investors and strictly for this ten-day window: Because of the mixed impact this kind of monumental give-away can have on my business.

I’ve been running this company without interruption for 40 years straight, and if you consider the legacy of my father’s companies before me, we have an 80-year Weiss family tradition of guiding investors to safety and wealth building opportunities.  

I’m in great health and have a solid team of successors to keep the business going for decades to come.

So now let me explain the new kind of relationship we can have and how it works:

It’s my Weiss Inner Circle.

My Inner Circle is the most intimate, most elite, and most private group of friends and clients among our entire family of 400,000 readers and subscribers.

The idea is very straightforward: You get every newsletter, every VIP trading service, every rating, every research report, and EVERY PROFIT OPPORTUNITY that ALL of the Weiss divisions currently have to offer.

You get every single Weiss publication we launch in the future. You get them for as long as we publish them — and as long as you want them.

You get all that FOR LIFE — for less than the cost of just ONE YEAR of those services.

You’ll receive our in-depth monthly investment newsletters — the widely acclaimed Safe Money Report, Real Wealth Report, Income Superstars, Crisis Profit Hunter and Asia Stock Alert.

You’ll get our high-end global VIP trading services, including Emerging Market Winners, International ETF Trader, Red-Hot Global Resources, and Crisis Trader.

You’ll be welcomed with open arms to our million-dollar portfolios, which, with this rare exception we’re making for you now, are CLOSED to all new investors!

They include our Million-Dollar Contrarian Portfolio, our Million-Dollar Rapid Growth Portfolio and our Weiss Million-Dollar Ratings Portfolio.

To underscore my confidence in these investment approaches, I have invested $1 million of my own money in each one! And you can not only track what I do with my own money but actually buy or sell BEFORE I do.

You’ll get our fast-paced, ultrahigh-profit-potential options research services, including Resource Windfall Trader, LEAPS Options Alert, and World Currency Trader.

Perhaps most exciting of all, you’ll be among the first to get the new Weiss service we’re getting ready to launch in a few weeks — not to mention all the new ones we introduce in the months to come.

Plus, There’s One Big Extra Bonus
You’ll Receive That No One Else Will.

You see, up until now, whenever our analysts in Asia, Europe, Latin America or right here in the U.S. have come across major profit opportunities in certain, unique small, but innovative companies, I’ve told them NOT to recommend them.

As you might imagine, this has frustrated the hell out of our analysts who find precious little gems they’d love to recommend to their subscribers.

Still, I have drawn a line in the sand on this issue. We simply cannot recommend these investments to thousands of investors. It would make it difficult for investors to get in — or out — at a fair price.

And that’s a shame — because as you know, it’s these smaller companies that can often post some of the most explosive gains!

The great news is, you can have full access to these kinds of recommendations as a member of my Weiss Inner Circle!

Since my Weiss Inner Circle is a very intimate, VIP group, I have given our analysts the green light to recommend these special opportunities exclusively to Weiss Inner Circle members.

This way, savvy investors like you can take advantage of these stellar, extremely high profit potential companies all over the world.

The profits from just this one benefit ALONE could cover the entire cost of membership in my Weiss Inner Circle.

In addition,

You’ll Be Among the Very First to
Get the Brand-New Service We’re
Launching THIS Month!

It’s devoted to an extremely high-powered new investment vehicle.

We’ll give you the opportunity to try it out before virtually everyone else in the world.

And then when we launch it to the general public, it will cost at least $2,500 PER YEAR. But it will be yours FOR LIFE with your membership in my Weiss Inner Circle.

And there’s more.

In recent months, we have inaugurated some incredibly valuable services and offered them FIRST to Weiss Inner Circle members.

For example, members of our Weiss Inner Circle were the first to gain unlimited access to the proprietary research we have on 40,000 companies and investments.

That includes every public company in the U.S., ranging from the smallest upstart to the largest blue chip. Plus, it also includes every exchange traded fund (ETF) and mutual fund.

We also cover nearly every U.S. bank, credit union, and insurance company.

And all of this research is based on the objective ratings we originally developed.

If you want our research on any institution, you can get it instantly. If you want reports on a hundred institutions of your choice, they’re yours.

Or if you want our help to SEARCH through the strongest among THOUSANDS of institutions, that’s also a part of your membership.

Grab our research as often as you like …

Claim as many reports as you like …

There are absolutely NO LIMITATIONS!

The more investments you have, the more banks or insurers you do business with, and the more you use this incredibly timely, accurate resource, the more profitable it could be for you.

Value: Immense and unlimited!

And there’s another very unique benefit to my Weiss Inner Circle — a benefit that flows directly and naturally from our 80-year history. It’s the Weiss Family Program, which I’ll explain to you in just a moment.

But …

Please Don’t Underestimate the
Exclusive Value of This Membership.

I will never send this invitation to the general public.

I am sending this invitation exclusively to our most loyal subscribers, representing only a small fraction of our readers. And we have set aside only a very tiny number of Weiss Inner Circle memberships — enough for only 2% of our loyal subscribers.

So I am asking you not share this invitation with anyone else.

Now, if you know me, you know I devote a lot of my time and heart to helping the average investor. So I’d love to help everyone if I could. But since many of the investments made available to our Inner Circle members are often smaller special opportunities, we MUST strictly limit the number of memberships we make available.

That’s why I’d like you to keep this to yourself and your closest family members only.

Most important, I recommend that you NOT wait until the end of this ten-day window. Membership is first come first served. If all the available memberships are taken BEFORE the last day, we will close the doors sooner.

In other words, the BEST time to collect your $9,581 is right now.

So now let me explain precisely how you can effectively get paid $9,581 — and at the same time cancel your Weiss Research subscriptions.

Remember what I said at the outset: A membership in the Weiss Inner Circle costs LESS than one year of the services that members receive.

You can get a lifetime membership in all our investment newsletters … all our fast-paced ETF and stock trading services … all of our million-dollar portfolios … all of our extreme high-profit-potential options services … PLUS unlimited access to our research on all 40,000 companies based on the ratings we originally developed.

And you get it all for LESS than the DISCOUNTED price of what you’d pay for a single year.

On top of that, you get all the Weiss publications we will launch in the future.

In the first year alone, you’ll immediately save a whopping $9,581! That’s how I “pay” you this money immediately.

If you got only ONE YEAR of our services and nothing more, you’d already have a huge benefit — nearly $10,000.

But that’s just the beginning …

By the second year, you’ll have saved $27,983.

By year five, you will have saved $83,189!

And in year ten, your total savings will add up to a whopping $175,199!

WITHOUT even including the value of the new services we’re going to be adding — typically a few per year.

In this letter, I’m going to tell you about many of the services you will get, including a few that sometimes go for large triple-digit gains.

But before I do, I want to make sure you understand the context.

It’s important to point out that those large triple-digit gains are NOT always possible, and you should NOT go into any of our services with the expectation that they are the norm.

Normally, most investors are thrilled to bank single- and double-digit profits, and so are we.

And typically, it’s only when great events make markets more volatile that it’s possible to make the far larger gains.

The recent huge rises in oil, gold and other commodity prices are good examples. So is the dramatic decline of the U.S. dollar recently. The collapse of major banks in 2008-2009 also provided some unique megaprofit opportunities. And with the U.S. economy now weakening, with a big budget battle looming and major new global money flows on the immediate horizon, we anticipate similar — or bigger — market moving events ahead.

But it’s also important to remember that all investments involve risk of loss. Nobody I know — including our analysts, who I feel are among the best in the world — can win 100% of the time. Losses, even losing streaks, come with the territory.

The good news is that, with expert guidance and prudent risk management, the historic events we’re now seeing in the U.S. economy, the currency markets and in commodities offer us opportunities that other generations of investors could only dream about. With that in mind, let me tell you about the first new service we’re going to be adding THIS MONTH.

It’s by the world’s most consistently successful trader I have known or probably ever will know. And what’s unique about it is that he HAS been a consistent big winner year after year.

I can’t reveal his name right now. But when I do reveal it this month, you’ll probably recognize him instantly since he’s been such a regular guest on CNBC, Fox News, CNN … and because he’s been quoted so often in the most widely respected websites, journals and blogs all over the world.

What many people do NOT know about him is that he’s been making recommendations to a very small, private group of investors who could have used them to make a fortune.

His track record since he began in 2004 through May of this year, which we’ve verified trade by trade, shows a total return — including winners and losers — of 1,133.2% — enough to make you more than 11 times richer!

If you had started with $10,000, you could now have over $120,000. If you had invested $25,000, you could now have over $300,000. And if you had started with $100,000, you’d now have over $1.2 million.

An astonishing 69% of trades were winners — and the AVERAGE return on each winner was 87.4% — nearly a double, while the average loss on losing trades was only 32%.

Of course, past performance is no guaranty of future success because the vehicles he uses and market conditions can change. But I have personally been getting his trading signals; and I’ve seen, in real time, how consistently accurate they’ve been.

That’s important. And it’s why we’ve decided to add a new service he’ll be running to our Weiss Inner Circle this month.

Normally, investors would pay up to $5,000 for his trading signals, and even if we decide to offer a discount for Charter members, they will still pay close to $2,500 — for one year. But as a member of my Weiss Inner Circle, you will get them as part of your lifetime membership.

As a member of my Weiss Inner Circle, you will also get a lifetime membership in Mike Larson’s LEAPS Options Alert.

In most respects, LEAPS options — or simply LEAPS — are just like any other stock option. They’re generally inexpensive. And their purchase offers you virtually unlimited profit potential with your risk on each trade strictly limited to their cost plus a small broker commission.

But LEAPS give you a critical advantage that ordinary options do not: They can give you far more TIME to work in your favor — up to THREE YEARS! While most other options expire in just a few months, you can buy LEAPS right now that won’t expire until 2014!

This makes LEAPS excellent vehicles for two goals that are especially critical today:

  • To serve as “crash insurance,” helping to PROTECT your portfolio against losses; and
  • To GROW your wealth rapidly — especially helpful in declining markets.

Take Phase I of this great debt crisis, for instance: Had you purchased long-term LEAPS on each of the stocks we warned you about well in advance — the very same stocks we NAMED as candidates for failure — you could have banked …

Darkening Storm Clouds on the US Civility Horizon

June 10th, 2011

Today, a new post on our friend Barry Ritholtz’s blog looks at Jack Cafferty’s new CNN Question of the Hour: What are the chances the US economy could eventually trigger violence in our country?

A few choice quotations help explain the perspective:

  • “A new CNN poll suggests 48 percent of Americans think the country is headed for another Great Depression in the next 12 months.”
  • “If our economy doesn’t turn around, and people don’t start feeling optimistic about their futures again, we could be headed for some ugly scenarios.”
  • James Carville remarked, “The current economy is so bad, there’s a heightened risk of civil unrest unless things begin changing for the better.”
  • “In the most recent jobs report, last Friday, more than half of the private sector jobs added were at McDonald’s.”

Some viewer reactions point out challenges with wealth disparity in the nation, as well as with increasing prices of gas, groceries, and other basic items as the ingredients of “a crumbling nation.” You can view more details in the video below which came to our attention via a Big Picture blog post on how the handling of the economic crisis may lead to civil unrest.

Darkening Storm Clouds on the US Civility Horizon originally appeared in the Daily Reckoning. The Daily Reckoning provides over half a million subscribers with literary economic perspective, global market analysis, and contrarian investment ideas.

Read more here:
Darkening Storm Clouds on the US Civility Horizon




The Daily Reckoning is a contrarian e-letter, brought to you by New York Times best-selling authors Bill Bonner and Addison Wiggin since 1999. The DR looks at the economic world-at-large and offers its major players – investors, politicians, economists and the average consumer – some much-needed constructive criticism.

Commodities, Uncategorized

The Commodity Summer Slump

June 9th, 2011

Larry Edelson

Heading into the June to August period, many commodity markets should experience their typical seasonal summer weakness. That means possible pullbacks in many commodities, including gold, silver, and oil.

Don’t be phased by it. It will be nothing more than a healthy pullback that will lead to substantially higher prices for nearly all tangible assets and resources over the next few years.

For one thing, the sovereign debt is clearly picking up momentum. Not only in Europe, but also in the United States where the debt ceiling, despite all the political jaw-boning, will likely be increased, and where the Federal Reserve will continue to print money to keep the debt juggernaut going.

For another, the U.S. dollar remains weak at the knees, hardly able to bounce, and terribly weak against the Swiss franc, the Australian and Canadian dollars, and even weak against the Euro.

And for yet another, Asia’s economies continue to build momentum for further growth. Take it from me, here on the front lines in Asia; I see no evidence of slowdowns whatsoever, whether it be here in Thailand, or Singapore, China, Indonesia or Malaysia.

The sum total of Asia’s growth means rising demand for commodities on a long-term basis — as nearly 62% the world’s population is Asian. That’s three out of every five people in the world.

Plus, we are already beginning to see the evidence of supply shortages in select commodities, from peaking oil supplies, to strains on agriculturals, to supply constraints in iron ore, copper, and more.

All of this is why one should not be very concerned about any commodity weakness that may develop in the short term.

So that you keep your eye on the long-term view, today I am going to reveal my long-term price targets for commodities, which were first published, of course, for members of my Real Wealth Report in last month’s issue.

But I also want you to keep fully in mind that you will not see such prices for a while. All of my work indicates that the extreme inflation that so many analysts now embrace and expect to see almost immediately will not come right away.

Indeed, I do not see inflation getting out of control until at least 2015.

Between now and then, we will continue to see massive swings in all markets, and oscillations between deflationary and inflationary psychology. We will also see some markets, assets classes and sectors inflate, while others crash and burn. It will be a wild ride, to say the least.

Three additional key points to keep in mind …

First, there will be another round of massive money printing from the Federal Reserve. There’s no question about it. Only the timing. The economy is showing signs of weakness and the only real buyer of U.S. debt right now — and in the future — is likely to be the Fed.

Second, the inflation you will see building over the next few years will be different from past inflations. The chief difference is that we will not see massive wage inflation.

There will be some wage inflation, but the bulk of the inflation I see going forward will stem — unequivocally — from dollar devaluation … from

Commodities, ETF, Mutual Fund, Uncategorized

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