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Archive for the ‘ETF’ Category

ETFs And Allocations To Protect Portfolios In The Current Financial Storm

October 24th, 2011

This is a followup to a previous postings suggesting how investors can take refuge in the oncoming financial storm. If you’ve not done so already, be sure to read my previous post Say It Ain’t So for a description of our dismal macroeconomic Read more…

ETF, Real Estate, Uncategorized

ETFs Turn Exotic – Protect yourself

October 17th, 2011

Investments that do not move in tandem with U.S. stocks present opportunities for diversification and potential performance Read more…

Commodities, ETF, OPTIONS, Real Estate, Uncategorized

European Default Inevitable — Sell Your Gold?

October 7th, 2011

In the prequel to this article (European Default Inevitable — Sell Your Gold?), I discussed the fact that safe-haven-seeking investors could be in for a surprise when they run to buy gold after a Greek default and find huge sellers in Read more…

ETF, Mutual Fund, Uncategorized

The Stocks & Commodity Technical trading Outlook Part I

June 13th, 2011

The coming summer should be exciting for traders! While summer trading generally tends to be slow, this one could be different. A large number of other professional traders I talk with are all feeling the tension building in the market. We all think some big movements are just around the corner and the big question is which way are things going to move?

Depending on your trading style you may be viewing the recent market action as the beginning stages of a bear market (major sell off). A bear market is not necessarily impossible as the U.S. Economy is showing the beginning signs of weakness. The fact that stocks have moved lower for almost 6 weeks straight is a recent reminder that we may not be out of the woods just yet. The recent price action and negative sentiment has been harsh enough to make 99% of traders bearish.

In contrast, some traders may be seeing this market as an oversold dip preparing for a bounce/rally in the bull market which we have been in since 2009. Some traders may see this as a buying opportunity because you are a contrarian. Most contrarians generally want to do the opposite of the masses (herd) who are merely trading purely out of emotional sentiment.

I myself have mixed thoughts on the market at this point in time. I’m not a big picture (long trend forecasting) kind of guy but my trading partner David Banister is great at it. Rather I am a shorter term trader catching extreme sentiment shifts in the market with trades lasting 3-60 days in length. So looking forward 2-5 days I feel as though stocks and commodities are going to bottom and start to head higher for a 2-6% bounce. At that point we need to regroup and analyze how the market got there… Was the buying coming from the herd, institutions, or was it just a short covering rally? Additionally, where are the key resistance levels and did we break through any?

During extreme sentiment shifts in the market we tend to see investments fall out of sync with each other for a few days. I feel the attention will be on stocks and we get a bounce this week. I am expecting commodities to trade relatively flat during the same time period.

OK let’s take a quick look at the charts…

Dollar Index 4 Hour Candles
I feel as though the US Dollar is trying to bottom. It is very possible that we test the May low at which point I would expect another strong bounce and possible multi-month rally. So if the dollar drops to the May lows then we should see higher stocks and commodities, but once the dollar firms up and heads higher it will be game over for risk assets.

Crude Oil Chart – Daily
Oil took a swan dive in early May and has yet to show any signs of moving higher. Actually crude oil is looking more and more bearish as time goes by.

Silver 4 Hour Chart
Silver has formed much of the same pattern that oil has. On a technical basis its pointing to sharply lower prices still. The fact that silver bullion went from an investment to a speculative trading instrument within the past 8 months makes me think it could test the $25 area. The one thing to remember here is that silver is still overall in a bull market. This is a 50/50 guess in my opinion as it nears the apex of this pennant pattern.

Gold 4 Hour Chart
Gold has held up much better than other metals and commodities and I feel that is because it’s still seen at the REAL safe haven. But reviewing the chart Im starting to see bearish price action beginning to take place.

SP500 Futures – 10 Minute Chart Going Back 8 Days
Last week the SP500 continued to show signs of weakness. Any bounce in the market was on light volume and that is because the sellers took a break and let all the small traders buy the market back up. But once the market moved up enough then sellers jumped back in and unloaded their shares.
Last Thursday I sent out an update to members pointing out that lower prices were to be expected. I came to this conclusion because of many data points. Looking at the chart you can see sellers are clearly in control. The SP500 bounces high enough that it reached a key resistance levels going back 5 days. Also the 200 period moving average was at that level. To top that off my sentiment reading for the herd mentality was at a point which sellers like to start dumping their shares again.

Weekly Market Trading Conclusion:
In short, I am getting more bullish for a bounce as the market falls. But once we are into day 3 or 4 of a bounce we must be ready to take profits and/or look for a possible short setup.

Get my free weekly reports here: http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/trade-money-emotions.php

Chris Vermeulen

Read more here:
The Stocks & Commodity Technical trading Outlook Part I




Chris Vermeulen is a full time daytrader and swing trader specializing in trading (NYSE:GLD), (NYSE:GDX), XGD.TO, (NYSE:SLV) and (NYSE:USO). I provide my trading charts, market insight and trading signals to members of my newsletter service. If you have any questions feel free to send me an email: Chris@TheGoldAndOilGuy.com This article is intended solely for information purposes. The opinions are those of the author only. Please conduct further research and consult your financial advisor before making any investment/trading decision. No responsibility can be accepted for losses that may result as a consequence of trading on the basis of this analysis.

Commodities, ETF

Don’t touch these stocks with a ten-foot pole!

June 13th, 2011

Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D.Major stock sectors are now in a race for the bottom.

These are stocks on a rendezvous with their lowest lows reached in the debt crisis of 2008-2009 … sinking back into the danger zone that came with red ink, bankruptcy, and financial ruin for millions of investors.

Hard to believe that could already be happening so soon after the market peaked?

Then consider the 25 stocks I’m going to list for you in a moment, starting with PMI Group, one of the nation’s leading mortgage insurers.

Two and a half years ago, at the height of the financial crisis, this leading mortgage insurer plummeted to a low of a meager 32 cents per share.

But in the weeks and months that followed, Washington worked overtime to inject trillions of dollars into the housing market and convince the world that the Great American Nightmare — the worst real estate crash of all time — was over.

Many Americans, blinded by their faith in “almighty government,” actually fell for it: The housing market stabilized temporarily. The economy recovered a bit. Stocks rallied sharply. And PMI surged, reaching a peak of $7.10 per share last year.

But that was just the prelude to disaster …

Chart

In the ensuing months, all of the government’s housing support programs and all the government’s mortgage subsidy initiatives failed.

Nothing the government did could stop wave after wave of mortgage defaults and foreclosures.

And even the government’s massive injections of money into the mortgage market were unable to prevent PMI from crashing again, closing at a mere $1.12 per share in late trading hours this past Friday.

That’s down a sickening 84% from last year’s high!

If you had invested $10,000 in this dog at that time, you’d now have only $1,577 in your account right now.

An Unimportant Company? No!

PMI has historically been a huge player with a pivotal function in the housing finance industry — insuring mortgages against default. But now …

If big mortgage insurers like PMI go out of business or refuse to write new policies, most lenders will refuse to extend mortgage loans to anyone except those who are rich enough to buy a home for cash and don’t need a mortgage to begin with.

Moreover, PMI is on the frontline of the losing battle against a flood of bad mortgages in virtually every region of the United States.

So if this company is drowning and its stock is sinking to zero, you can be quite certain that many other companies downstream — lenders and banks, builders and realtors, REITs and other financials — are likely to face a similar fate.

As I illustrated here last week, nearly all bank and financial stocks are now in a race for the bottom — the only difference being, PMI is “winning” that race.

Just a Technical Correction?

If the housing and mortgage markets were holding up nicely, perhaps you could make that argument stick. But the fact is, all three key facets of this giant sector are coming unglued at the seams —

  1. The finances of homeowners who borrowed the money
  2. The finances of bankers who loaned them the money
  3. And the value of the home itself, the underlying collateral that’s supposed to be tapped when folks run out of money.

This is no small technicality. It’s a fundamental deterioration in the underpinnings of the entire sector.

“Why Can’t the Government Come
To The Rescue Again?” You Ask

For the simple reason that the government itself is ALSO running out of money.

But for argument’s sake, let’s say the government does somehow come up with more funds to pump into housing and mortgages.

OK. So what? What difference is that going to make?

Based on the recent history, the answer should be obvious: Not much!

Chart

Remember: No amount of government intervention has been able to prevent home prices from plunging to new lows — even lower than the bottom of March 2009, when homes were selling at deeply distressed prices. (See chart to left.)

Similarly, no amount of government intervention can prevent nearly every sector that touches housing and mortgages from suffering a similar fate.

“Martin’s Too Pessimistic.
Don’t Listen to Him!” Say My Critics

Harry Truman once said. “I never give them hell. I just tell the truth and they think it’s hell.”

That’s what my team and I do.

If anything, we’re optimists. We find the few companies that do have the wherewithal to survive and even benefit. And we see silver linings in this crisis that I’ll be glad to tell you more about in future issues.

Moreover, this is isn’t the first time we have given advance warnings about companies like PMI.

In our Safe Money Report of April 2005, well before the housing bubble peaked, we told our subscribers not to touch PMI Group and 24 other stocks with a ten-foot pole. Here they are:

Aames Investment, Accredited Home Lenders, Beazer Homes, Countrywide Financial, DR Horton, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Fidelity National Financial, Fremont General, General Motors, Golden West Financial, H&R Block, KB Homes, MDC Holdings, MGIC Investment, New Century Financial, Novastar Financial, PHH Group, PMI Group, Pulte Homes, Radian Group, Toll Brothers, Washington Mutual, and Wells Fargo & Company.

(Want proof? Click here for the SMR issue of April 2005 and scroll down to page 10.)

Subsequently, 11 of these 25 companies filed for bankruptcy, were bailed out or bought out.

ALL 25 stocks plummeted, with an AVERAGE loss of 81.3%.

And even after more than two years of stock market rally, investors who bought and held these stocks are deep in the red.

(But whether they rallied or not, our advice to anyone who owns the surviving companies today is the same: Don’t touch them with a ten-foot pole!)

Later, in the financial crisis of 2008, we were the only ones who issued negative ratings and warned well ahead of time of nearly every major firm that subsequently collapsed. We warned about …

* Bear Stearns 102 days before it failed (click here for the proof)

* Lehman Brothers 182 days before (proof)

* Citigroup 110 days before (proof)

* Washington Mutual 51 days before (proof), and

* Fannie Mae 4 years before (proof).

That’s history. What counts most now is that …

It’s “Game Over” for the U.S. “Recovery”

Look. From the outset, we knew the U.S. economic recovery was rigged — bought and paid for by the greatest monetary and fiscal extravaganzas of all time.

We knew that no government, no matter how rich, can create corporate immortality: In the real world, companies are born and companies must die. I’m sure you understood that as well.

We knew that no government, no matter how autocratic, can repeal the law of gravity: When sellers are anxious to sell and buyers are reluctant to buy, prices fall. A no-brainer!

We also knew that no government, no matter how powerful, can stop the march of time: With every second that ticks by, more debts come due, more mortgages go into default, more homes are foreclosed.

And I think you knew, too. But still you ask:

“How Could This Recovery End So
Abruptly and Crumble So Dramatically?”

Answer: As we’ve been telling you all along, it was never a true recovery to begin with:

CANCEL your Weiss subscriptions and I will “pay” you $9,581!

June 12th, 2011

The powerful economic changes we’ve been warning you about have now begun to hit the U.S. economy where it hurts.

So to help make sure you’re completely ready for the huge volatility ahead, I want to change our relationship in a very fundamental way.

To make that possible, I will “pay” you $9,581 to immediately cancel your current Weiss Research subscription, and in a moment I’ll explain exactly how and why.

That’s nearly $10,000 for you.

All you have to do is decide whether you want to accept it or not.

But don’t worry: If you decide to go for it, I’ll still be there for you through thick and thin. So will Mike Larson, Larry Edelson, Nilus Mattive, Sean Brodrick, and everyone else on our team.

In fact, if you cancel your subscriptions right now, you can get ALL of the services and profit opportunities that ALL of our analysts offer for as long as you want, and STILL get the $9,581 IN ADDITION to all our services.

Unbelievable? Perhaps. But it’s true.

You cancel your subscriptions. You get EVERYTHING we publish today — every service, every recommendation, every video or email.

You get them FOREVER.

Plus, you’ll also get ALL the new Weiss publications we introduce in the future.

And on top of everything, you get “paid” $9,581!

Yes, I agree. It IS hard to believe. But it’s a fact. And by the time you finish reading this letter, you’ll know everything you need to know to claim your $9,581.

It’s an opportunity that I am offering exclusively to a small, select group of our subscribers, but only for TEN DAYS. The opportunity expires promptly at midnight, Saturday, June 18th. I have selected this ten-day window right now because of the dramatic events that have just begun to unfold!

Nationwide, housing prices have just made new lows. Unemployment is rising again. We have an obvious downturn in the U.S. economy.

We see a rapid deterioration in U.S. bank finances.

Plus, we are facing landmark budget battles in Washington — and a Congress sworn to block any major new bailouts or stimulus schemes.

I don’t want you to be hurt by the fall-out or miss any of the dramatic opportunities this crisis has already begun to generate.

Plus, there’s another, very practical reason I have limited this offer to a small group of investors and strictly for this ten-day window: Because of the mixed impact this kind of monumental give-away can have on my business.

I’ve been running this company without interruption for 40 years straight, and if you consider the legacy of my father’s companies before me, we have an 80-year Weiss family tradition of guiding investors to safety and wealth building opportunities.  

I’m in great health and have a solid team of successors to keep the business going for decades to come.

So now let me explain the new kind of relationship we can have and how it works:

It’s my Weiss Inner Circle.

My Inner Circle is the most intimate, most elite, and most private group of friends and clients among our entire family of 400,000 readers and subscribers.

The idea is very straightforward: You get every newsletter, every VIP trading service, every rating, every research report, and EVERY PROFIT OPPORTUNITY that ALL of the Weiss divisions currently have to offer.

You get every single Weiss publication we launch in the future. You get them for as long as we publish them — and as long as you want them.

You get all that FOR LIFE — for less than the cost of just ONE YEAR of those services.

You’ll receive our in-depth monthly investment newsletters — the widely acclaimed Safe Money Report, Real Wealth Report, Income Superstars, Crisis Profit Hunter and Asia Stock Alert.

You’ll get our high-end global VIP trading services, including Emerging Market Winners, International ETF Trader, Red-Hot Global Resources, and Crisis Trader.

You’ll be welcomed with open arms to our million-dollar portfolios, which, with this rare exception we’re making for you now, are CLOSED to all new investors!

They include our Million-Dollar Contrarian Portfolio, our Million-Dollar Rapid Growth Portfolio and our Weiss Million-Dollar Ratings Portfolio.

To underscore my confidence in these investment approaches, I have invested $1 million of my own money in each one! And you can not only track what I do with my own money but actually buy or sell BEFORE I do.

You’ll get our fast-paced, ultrahigh-profit-potential options research services, including Resource Windfall Trader, LEAPS Options Alert, and World Currency Trader.

Perhaps most exciting of all, you’ll be among the first to get the new Weiss service we’re getting ready to launch in a few weeks — not to mention all the new ones we introduce in the months to come.

Plus, There’s One Big Extra Bonus
You’ll Receive That No One Else Will.

You see, up until now, whenever our analysts in Asia, Europe, Latin America or right here in the U.S. have come across major profit opportunities in certain, unique small, but innovative companies, I’ve told them NOT to recommend them.

As you might imagine, this has frustrated the hell out of our analysts who find precious little gems they’d love to recommend to their subscribers.

Still, I have drawn a line in the sand on this issue. We simply cannot recommend these investments to thousands of investors. It would make it difficult for investors to get in — or out — at a fair price.

And that’s a shame — because as you know, it’s these smaller companies that can often post some of the most explosive gains!

The great news is, you can have full access to these kinds of recommendations as a member of my Weiss Inner Circle!

Since my Weiss Inner Circle is a very intimate, VIP group, I have given our analysts the green light to recommend these special opportunities exclusively to Weiss Inner Circle members.

This way, savvy investors like you can take advantage of these stellar, extremely high profit potential companies all over the world.

The profits from just this one benefit ALONE could cover the entire cost of membership in my Weiss Inner Circle.

In addition,

You’ll Be Among the Very First to
Get the Brand-New Service We’re
Launching THIS Month!

It’s devoted to an extremely high-powered new investment vehicle.

We’ll give you the opportunity to try it out before virtually everyone else in the world.

And then when we launch it to the general public, it will cost at least $2,500 PER YEAR. But it will be yours FOR LIFE with your membership in my Weiss Inner Circle.

And there’s more.

In recent months, we have inaugurated some incredibly valuable services and offered them FIRST to Weiss Inner Circle members.

For example, members of our Weiss Inner Circle were the first to gain unlimited access to the proprietary research we have on 40,000 companies and investments.

That includes every public company in the U.S., ranging from the smallest upstart to the largest blue chip. Plus, it also includes every exchange traded fund (ETF) and mutual fund.

We also cover nearly every U.S. bank, credit union, and insurance company.

And all of this research is based on the objective ratings we originally developed.

If you want our research on any institution, you can get it instantly. If you want reports on a hundred institutions of your choice, they’re yours.

Or if you want our help to SEARCH through the strongest among THOUSANDS of institutions, that’s also a part of your membership.

Grab our research as often as you like …

Claim as many reports as you like …

There are absolutely NO LIMITATIONS!

The more investments you have, the more banks or insurers you do business with, and the more you use this incredibly timely, accurate resource, the more profitable it could be for you.

Value: Immense and unlimited!

And there’s another very unique benefit to my Weiss Inner Circle — a benefit that flows directly and naturally from our 80-year history. It’s the Weiss Family Program, which I’ll explain to you in just a moment.

But …

Please Don’t Underestimate the
Exclusive Value of This Membership.

I will never send this invitation to the general public.

I am sending this invitation exclusively to our most loyal subscribers, representing only a small fraction of our readers. And we have set aside only a very tiny number of Weiss Inner Circle memberships — enough for only 2% of our loyal subscribers.

So I am asking you not share this invitation with anyone else.

Now, if you know me, you know I devote a lot of my time and heart to helping the average investor. So I’d love to help everyone if I could. But since many of the investments made available to our Inner Circle members are often smaller special opportunities, we MUST strictly limit the number of memberships we make available.

That’s why I’d like you to keep this to yourself and your closest family members only.

Most important, I recommend that you NOT wait until the end of this ten-day window. Membership is first come first served. If all the available memberships are taken BEFORE the last day, we will close the doors sooner.

In other words, the BEST time to collect your $9,581 is right now.

So now let me explain precisely how you can effectively get paid $9,581 — and at the same time cancel your Weiss Research subscriptions.

Remember what I said at the outset: A membership in the Weiss Inner Circle costs LESS than one year of the services that members receive.

You can get a lifetime membership in all our investment newsletters … all our fast-paced ETF and stock trading services … all of our million-dollar portfolios … all of our extreme high-profit-potential options services … PLUS unlimited access to our research on all 40,000 companies based on the ratings we originally developed.

And you get it all for LESS than the DISCOUNTED price of what you’d pay for a single year.

On top of that, you get all the Weiss publications we will launch in the future.

In the first year alone, you’ll immediately save a whopping $9,581! That’s how I “pay” you this money immediately.

If you got only ONE YEAR of our services and nothing more, you’d already have a huge benefit — nearly $10,000.

But that’s just the beginning …

By the second year, you’ll have saved $27,983.

By year five, you will have saved $83,189!

And in year ten, your total savings will add up to a whopping $175,199!

WITHOUT even including the value of the new services we’re going to be adding — typically a few per year.

In this letter, I’m going to tell you about many of the services you will get, including a few that sometimes go for large triple-digit gains.

But before I do, I want to make sure you understand the context.

It’s important to point out that those large triple-digit gains are NOT always possible, and you should NOT go into any of our services with the expectation that they are the norm.

Normally, most investors are thrilled to bank single- and double-digit profits, and so are we.

And typically, it’s only when great events make markets more volatile that it’s possible to make the far larger gains.

The recent huge rises in oil, gold and other commodity prices are good examples. So is the dramatic decline of the U.S. dollar recently. The collapse of major banks in 2008-2009 also provided some unique megaprofit opportunities. And with the U.S. economy now weakening, with a big budget battle looming and major new global money flows on the immediate horizon, we anticipate similar — or bigger — market moving events ahead.

But it’s also important to remember that all investments involve risk of loss. Nobody I know — including our analysts, who I feel are among the best in the world — can win 100% of the time. Losses, even losing streaks, come with the territory.

The good news is that, with expert guidance and prudent risk management, the historic events we’re now seeing in the U.S. economy, the currency markets and in commodities offer us opportunities that other generations of investors could only dream about. With that in mind, let me tell you about the first new service we’re going to be adding THIS MONTH.

It’s by the world’s most consistently successful trader I have known or probably ever will know. And what’s unique about it is that he HAS been a consistent big winner year after year.

I can’t reveal his name right now. But when I do reveal it this month, you’ll probably recognize him instantly since he’s been such a regular guest on CNBC, Fox News, CNN … and because he’s been quoted so often in the most widely respected websites, journals and blogs all over the world.

What many people do NOT know about him is that he’s been making recommendations to a very small, private group of investors who could have used them to make a fortune.

His track record since he began in 2004 through May of this year, which we’ve verified trade by trade, shows a total return — including winners and losers — of 1,133.2% — enough to make you more than 11 times richer!

If you had started with $10,000, you could now have over $120,000. If you had invested $25,000, you could now have over $300,000. And if you had started with $100,000, you’d now have over $1.2 million.

An astonishing 69% of trades were winners — and the AVERAGE return on each winner was 87.4% — nearly a double, while the average loss on losing trades was only 32%.

Of course, past performance is no guaranty of future success because the vehicles he uses and market conditions can change. But I have personally been getting his trading signals; and I’ve seen, in real time, how consistently accurate they’ve been.

That’s important. And it’s why we’ve decided to add a new service he’ll be running to our Weiss Inner Circle this month.

Normally, investors would pay up to $5,000 for his trading signals, and even if we decide to offer a discount for Charter members, they will still pay close to $2,500 — for one year. But as a member of my Weiss Inner Circle, you will get them as part of your lifetime membership.

As a member of my Weiss Inner Circle, you will also get a lifetime membership in Mike Larson’s LEAPS Options Alert.

In most respects, LEAPS options — or simply LEAPS — are just like any other stock option. They’re generally inexpensive. And their purchase offers you virtually unlimited profit potential with your risk on each trade strictly limited to their cost plus a small broker commission.

But LEAPS give you a critical advantage that ordinary options do not: They can give you far more TIME to work in your favor — up to THREE YEARS! While most other options expire in just a few months, you can buy LEAPS right now that won’t expire until 2014!

This makes LEAPS excellent vehicles for two goals that are especially critical today:

  • To serve as “crash insurance,” helping to PROTECT your portfolio against losses; and
  • To GROW your wealth rapidly — especially helpful in declining markets.

Take Phase I of this great debt crisis, for instance: Had you purchased long-term LEAPS on each of the stocks we warned you about well in advance — the very same stocks we NAMED as candidates for failure — you could have banked …

CANCEL your Weiss subscriptions and I will “pay” you $9,581!

June 12th, 2011

The powerful economic changes we’ve been warning you about have now begun to hit the U.S. economy where it hurts.

So to help make sure you’re completely ready for the huge volatility ahead, I want to change our relationship in a very fundamental way.

To make that possible, I will “pay” you $9,581 to immediately cancel your current Weiss Research subscription, and in a moment I’ll explain exactly how and why.

That’s nearly $10,000 for you.

All you have to do is decide whether you want to accept it or not.

But don’t worry: If you decide to go for it, I’ll still be there for you through thick and thin. So will Mike Larson, Larry Edelson, Nilus Mattive, Sean Brodrick, and everyone else on our team.

In fact, if you cancel your subscriptions right now, you can get ALL of the services and profit opportunities that ALL of our analysts offer for as long as you want, and STILL get the $9,581 IN ADDITION to all our services.

Unbelievable? Perhaps. But it’s true.

You cancel your subscriptions. You get EVERYTHING we publish today — every service, every recommendation, every video or email.

You get them FOREVER.

Plus, you’ll also get ALL the new Weiss publications we introduce in the future.

And on top of everything, you get “paid” $9,581!

Yes, I agree. It IS hard to believe. But it’s a fact. And by the time you finish reading this letter, you’ll know everything you need to know to claim your $9,581.

It’s an opportunity that I am offering exclusively to a small, select group of our subscribers, but only for TEN DAYS. The opportunity expires promptly at midnight, Saturday, June 18th. I have selected this ten-day window right now because of the dramatic events that have just begun to unfold!

Nationwide, housing prices have just made new lows. Unemployment is rising again. We have an obvious downturn in the U.S. economy.

We see a rapid deterioration in U.S. bank finances.

Plus, we are facing landmark budget battles in Washington — and a Congress sworn to block any major new bailouts or stimulus schemes.

I don’t want you to be hurt by the fall-out or miss any of the dramatic opportunities this crisis has already begun to generate.

Plus, there’s another, very practical reason I have limited this offer to a small group of investors and strictly for this ten-day window: Because of the mixed impact this kind of monumental give-away can have on my business.

I’ve been running this company without interruption for 40 years straight, and if you consider the legacy of my father’s companies before me, we have an 80-year Weiss family tradition of guiding investors to safety and wealth building opportunities.  

I’m in great health and have a solid team of successors to keep the business going for decades to come.

So now let me explain the new kind of relationship we can have and how it works:

It’s my Weiss Inner Circle.

My Inner Circle is the most intimate, most elite, and most private group of friends and clients among our entire family of 400,000 readers and subscribers.

The idea is very straightforward: You get every newsletter, every VIP trading service, every rating, every research report, and EVERY PROFIT OPPORTUNITY that ALL of the Weiss divisions currently have to offer.

You get every single Weiss publication we launch in the future. You get them for as long as we publish them — and as long as you want them.

You get all that FOR LIFE — for less than the cost of just ONE YEAR of those services.

You’ll receive our in-depth monthly investment newsletters — the widely acclaimed Safe Money Report, Real Wealth Report, Income Superstars, Crisis Profit Hunter and Asia Stock Alert.

You’ll get our high-end global VIP trading services, including Emerging Market Winners, International ETF Trader, Red-Hot Global Resources, and Crisis Trader.

You’ll be welcomed with open arms to our million-dollar portfolios, which, with this rare exception we’re making for you now, are CLOSED to all new investors!

They include our Million-Dollar Contrarian Portfolio, our Million-Dollar Rapid Growth Portfolio and our Weiss Million-Dollar Ratings Portfolio.

To underscore my confidence in these investment approaches, I have invested $1 million of my own money in each one! And you can not only track what I do with my own money but actually buy or sell BEFORE I do.

You’ll get our fast-paced, ultrahigh-profit-potential options research services, including Resource Windfall Trader, LEAPS Options Alert, and World Currency Trader.

Perhaps most exciting of all, you’ll be among the first to get the new Weiss service we’re getting ready to launch in a few weeks — not to mention all the new ones we introduce in the months to come.

Plus, There’s One Big Extra Bonus
You’ll Receive That No One Else Will.

You see, up until now, whenever our analysts in Asia, Europe, Latin America or right here in the U.S. have come across major profit opportunities in certain, unique small, but innovative companies, I’ve told them NOT to recommend them.

As you might imagine, this has frustrated the hell out of our analysts who find precious little gems they’d love to recommend to their subscribers.

Still, I have drawn a line in the sand on this issue. We simply cannot recommend these investments to thousands of investors. It would make it difficult for investors to get in — or out — at a fair price.

And that’s a shame — because as you know, it’s these smaller companies that can often post some of the most explosive gains!

The great news is, you can have full access to these kinds of recommendations as a member of my Weiss Inner Circle!

Since my Weiss Inner Circle is a very intimate, VIP group, I have given our analysts the green light to recommend these special opportunities exclusively to Weiss Inner Circle members.

This way, savvy investors like you can take advantage of these stellar, extremely high profit potential companies all over the world.

The profits from just this one benefit ALONE could cover the entire cost of membership in my Weiss Inner Circle.

In addition,

You’ll Be Among the Very First to
Get the Brand-New Service We’re
Launching THIS Month!

It’s devoted to an extremely high-powered new investment vehicle.

We’ll give you the opportunity to try it out before virtually everyone else in the world.

And then when we launch it to the general public, it will cost at least $2,500 PER YEAR. But it will be yours FOR LIFE with your membership in my Weiss Inner Circle.

And there’s more.

In recent months, we have inaugurated some incredibly valuable services and offered them FIRST to Weiss Inner Circle members.

For example, members of our Weiss Inner Circle were the first to gain unlimited access to the proprietary research we have on 40,000 companies and investments.

That includes every public company in the U.S., ranging from the smallest upstart to the largest blue chip. Plus, it also includes every exchange traded fund (ETF) and mutual fund.

We also cover nearly every U.S. bank, credit union, and insurance company.

And all of this research is based on the objective ratings we originally developed.

If you want our research on any institution, you can get it instantly. If you want reports on a hundred institutions of your choice, they’re yours.

Or if you want our help to SEARCH through the strongest among THOUSANDS of institutions, that’s also a part of your membership.

Grab our research as often as you like …

Claim as many reports as you like …

There are absolutely NO LIMITATIONS!

The more investments you have, the more banks or insurers you do business with, and the more you use this incredibly timely, accurate resource, the more profitable it could be for you.

Value: Immense and unlimited!

And there’s another very unique benefit to my Weiss Inner Circle — a benefit that flows directly and naturally from our 80-year history. It’s the Weiss Family Program, which I’ll explain to you in just a moment.

But …

Please Don’t Underestimate the
Exclusive Value of This Membership.

I will never send this invitation to the general public.

I am sending this invitation exclusively to our most loyal subscribers, representing only a small fraction of our readers. And we have set aside only a very tiny number of Weiss Inner Circle memberships — enough for only 2% of our loyal subscribers.

So I am asking you not share this invitation with anyone else.

Now, if you know me, you know I devote a lot of my time and heart to helping the average investor. So I’d love to help everyone if I could. But since many of the investments made available to our Inner Circle members are often smaller special opportunities, we MUST strictly limit the number of memberships we make available.

That’s why I’d like you to keep this to yourself and your closest family members only.

Most important, I recommend that you NOT wait until the end of this ten-day window. Membership is first come first served. If all the available memberships are taken BEFORE the last day, we will close the doors sooner.

In other words, the BEST time to collect your $9,581 is right now.

So now let me explain precisely how you can effectively get paid $9,581 — and at the same time cancel your Weiss Research subscriptions.

Remember what I said at the outset: A membership in the Weiss Inner Circle costs LESS than one year of the services that members receive.

You can get a lifetime membership in all our investment newsletters … all our fast-paced ETF and stock trading services … all of our million-dollar portfolios … all of our extreme high-profit-potential options services … PLUS unlimited access to our research on all 40,000 companies based on the ratings we originally developed.

And you get it all for LESS than the DISCOUNTED price of what you’d pay for a single year.

On top of that, you get all the Weiss publications we will launch in the future.

In the first year alone, you’ll immediately save a whopping $9,581! That’s how I “pay” you this money immediately.

If you got only ONE YEAR of our services and nothing more, you’d already have a huge benefit — nearly $10,000.

But that’s just the beginning …

By the second year, you’ll have saved $27,983.

By year five, you will have saved $83,189!

And in year ten, your total savings will add up to a whopping $175,199!

WITHOUT even including the value of the new services we’re going to be adding — typically a few per year.

In this letter, I’m going to tell you about many of the services you will get, including a few that sometimes go for large triple-digit gains.

But before I do, I want to make sure you understand the context.

It’s important to point out that those large triple-digit gains are NOT always possible, and you should NOT go into any of our services with the expectation that they are the norm.

Normally, most investors are thrilled to bank single- and double-digit profits, and so are we.

And typically, it’s only when great events make markets more volatile that it’s possible to make the far larger gains.

The recent huge rises in oil, gold and other commodity prices are good examples. So is the dramatic decline of the U.S. dollar recently. The collapse of major banks in 2008-2009 also provided some unique megaprofit opportunities. And with the U.S. economy now weakening, with a big budget battle looming and major new global money flows on the immediate horizon, we anticipate similar — or bigger — market moving events ahead.

But it’s also important to remember that all investments involve risk of loss. Nobody I know — including our analysts, who I feel are among the best in the world — can win 100% of the time. Losses, even losing streaks, come with the territory.

The good news is that, with expert guidance and prudent risk management, the historic events we’re now seeing in the U.S. economy, the currency markets and in commodities offer us opportunities that other generations of investors could only dream about. With that in mind, let me tell you about the first new service we’re going to be adding THIS MONTH.

It’s by the world’s most consistently successful trader I have known or probably ever will know. And what’s unique about it is that he HAS been a consistent big winner year after year.

I can’t reveal his name right now. But when I do reveal it this month, you’ll probably recognize him instantly since he’s been such a regular guest on CNBC, Fox News, CNN … and because he’s been quoted so often in the most widely respected websites, journals and blogs all over the world.

What many people do NOT know about him is that he’s been making recommendations to a very small, private group of investors who could have used them to make a fortune.

His track record since he began in 2004 through May of this year, which we’ve verified trade by trade, shows a total return — including winners and losers — of 1,133.2% — enough to make you more than 11 times richer!

If you had started with $10,000, you could now have over $120,000. If you had invested $25,000, you could now have over $300,000. And if you had started with $100,000, you’d now have over $1.2 million.

An astonishing 69% of trades were winners — and the AVERAGE return on each winner was 87.4% — nearly a double, while the average loss on losing trades was only 32%.

Of course, past performance is no guaranty of future success because the vehicles he uses and market conditions can change. But I have personally been getting his trading signals; and I’ve seen, in real time, how consistently accurate they’ve been.

That’s important. And it’s why we’ve decided to add a new service he’ll be running to our Weiss Inner Circle this month.

Normally, investors would pay up to $5,000 for his trading signals, and even if we decide to offer a discount for Charter members, they will still pay close to $2,500 — for one year. But as a member of my Weiss Inner Circle, you will get them as part of your lifetime membership.

As a member of my Weiss Inner Circle, you will also get a lifetime membership in Mike Larson’s LEAPS Options Alert.

In most respects, LEAPS options — or simply LEAPS — are just like any other stock option. They’re generally inexpensive. And their purchase offers you virtually unlimited profit potential with your risk on each trade strictly limited to their cost plus a small broker commission.

But LEAPS give you a critical advantage that ordinary options do not: They can give you far more TIME to work in your favor — up to THREE YEARS! While most other options expire in just a few months, you can buy LEAPS right now that won’t expire until 2014!

This makes LEAPS excellent vehicles for two goals that are especially critical today:

  • To serve as “crash insurance,” helping to PROTECT your portfolio against losses; and
  • To GROW your wealth rapidly — especially helpful in declining markets.

Take Phase I of this great debt crisis, for instance: Had you purchased long-term LEAPS on each of the stocks we warned you about well in advance — the very same stocks we NAMED as candidates for failure — you could have banked …

Time to Deploy the Hedges; Search for Values!

June 11th, 2011
Bryan Rich

I’m off with the family for a few days. So I asked Don Lucek to fill in for me and reveal how he plans to play the market “aggressively defensive.” — Bryan

Don LucekThere’s no denying that some recent negative economic reports are giving the market trouble.

For instance …

* The industrial economy staggered under temporary supply chain disruptions, with the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) and the Institute for Supply Managers (ISM) releases missing expectations by a country mile.

* Housing continued to slide, with the release of a worse than expected decline in prevailing home prices from S&P Case-Shiller.

* And the releases of several jobs reports — culminating on Friday with the all-important non-farm payrolls survey — gave the market nothing to be hopeful about for the near term.

In short, these reports are telling us that:

* The U.S. industrial economy is not yet back in fighting shape, but more distressing, that we don’t know when it will reveal stronger recovery.

* The risk of weakness showing up in 2nd quarter company earnings or company guidance has increased.

* Consumers are still a wild card in helping confirm any improvement in the economic outlook.

I’ve been following the volume patterns associated with moves in stocks of different market sectors, and have found that this most recent move down did not seem to be a normal sector rotation into defensive stocks.

Voices of reason will rightly tell you that a smart near-term strategy against this backdrop is to exercise extreme caution — do not fight the tape; take money off the table. But what do you do if you’re already defensive, and want to actually profit during periods of market turmoil?

My suggestion …

Play the downside, and look for even better entry prices for stocks you want to buy — after the storm is over.

Everything I’ve monitored lately tells me that negative sentiment is still gathering steam. But I think the rough patch we’re experiencing right now is transitory, and that after the dust settles we’ll be back to a more bullish tilt. However, I don’t know when that will happen.

So this could be the time to become aggressively defensive. I’ll be hedging some of my long positions, but looking for spots to purchase great stocks at a discount over the next couple of months.

The worst numbers seem to be coming from the global industrial sphere, so I plan to pay special attention to international issues for proper analysis. I’ve been able to get a good read on situations on the ground, in business, and in finance in Europe, which give me additional confidence in the medium-term prospects for a global economic recovery.

It's going to take consumers to get the economy rolling.
It’s going to take consumers to get the economy rolling.

Before that can happen, though, we need a rejuvenated consumer to help support economic growth. But while we’ve seen some glimmers of strength at the high-end, it’s not yet present at large, which will continue to provide a drag on growth. Amid slumping housing prices, weak job growth, and high gas prices, a great resurgence seems unlikely for now.

Not all of this is bad news, if you have the right hedges in place, and dry powder — in the form of a good-sized cash position — at your disposal. Also you should keep in mind that the non-stop flow of data from around the world can mislead the market, especially given the extraordinary issues affecting it right now — such as natural disasters and big picture issues like a potential financial crisis in a huge economic bloc.

Back in April, I acknowledged that the market could be in for a rough patch as we contended with Wall of Worry issues like jobs, the industrial economy, and potential financial system stress should we have deeper trouble in Europe.

That’s why I suggested keeping a large cash position, picking only high-quality stocks — ones that could weather near-term economic potholes, provide dividend income while we waited for real recovery, or to take advantage of other factors not yet present in financial reports.

But at the same time, I cannot deny that …

The Domestic and Global
Economies Are Growing!

Not at the pace we’d like to see, but growing nonetheless. With the way our domestic economy is evolving, we need to take a more global view in our analysis of profit expectations.

We’ve seen global effects like the job outsourcing trend, and increased international trade, which affect firms in ways that do not fit the old models. Jobless recoveries have been a more-common sight over the last few recoveries, and probably need to be factored into this one too.

We also have an important disconnect in the way that publicly-traded firms’ earnings beat estimates so soundly while smaller business saw a drop in profits and fewer opportunities to expand their operations or workforces. My read on this: We are going into an election cycle, bank credit is still tight, and small business will feel the pressure from macro concerns.

Many small businesses are holding back until politicians settle their differences.
Many small businesses are holding back until politicians settle their differences.

Once politicians’ positions on issues like health care reform and taxation become clearer, I think small business owners will be able to forecast their needs more accurately, which could unleash a positive trend from this main engine of job growth. That same political debate will help accentuate the choppy market in the near term, though.

The type of market we’re seeing right now is frequently referred to as a stock-picker’s market, but also seems to be developing a negative bias. I think it will remain so for at least the next 6-12 months. The only exception I could see would be some of the more classic defensive moves into particular sectors by institutional investors. And that will only occur if we get a downturn that lasts well into the summer or beyond.

Advertisement

That’s because many of these investors — who have been contributing far more than their share of the market’s volume during the entire run-up since March 2010 — must stay invested, so support for some stocks will be there.

My Game Plan — Deploy the Hedges,
Search for Values

I remain a bull on the markets and on the economy, but realize the headwinds are too strong to ignore. The S&P 500 has closed below an important support level. And I think we’ll see some violent rallies over the very near term, as the market fights to the upside and to the downside. So I don’t want to have too much inverse exposure while we watch for a trend to either develop, or not.

Best wishes,

Don

Read more here:
Time to Deploy the Hedges; Search for Values!

Commodities, ETF, Mutual Fund, Uncategorized

Time to Deploy the Hedges; Search for Values!

June 11th, 2011
Bryan Rich

I’m off with the family for a few days. So I asked Don Lucek to fill in for me and reveal how he plans to play the market “aggressively defensive.” — Bryan

Don LucekThere’s no denying that some recent negative economic reports are giving the market trouble.

For instance …

* The industrial economy staggered under temporary supply chain disruptions, with the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) and the Institute for Supply Managers (ISM) releases missing expectations by a country mile.

* Housing continued to slide, with the release of a worse than expected decline in prevailing home prices from S&P Case-Shiller.

* And the releases of several jobs reports — culminating on Friday with the all-important non-farm payrolls survey — gave the market nothing to be hopeful about for the near term.

In short, these reports are telling us that:

* The U.S. industrial economy is not yet back in fighting shape, but more distressing, that we don’t know when it will reveal stronger recovery.

* The risk of weakness showing up in 2nd quarter company earnings or company guidance has increased.

* Consumers are still a wild card in helping confirm any improvement in the economic outlook.

I’ve been following the volume patterns associated with moves in stocks of different market sectors, and have found that this most recent move down did not seem to be a normal sector rotation into defensive stocks.

Voices of reason will rightly tell you that a smart near-term strategy against this backdrop is to exercise extreme caution — do not fight the tape; take money off the table. But what do you do if you’re already defensive, and want to actually profit during periods of market turmoil?

My suggestion …

Play the downside, and look for even better entry prices for stocks you want to buy — after the storm is over.

Everything I’ve monitored lately tells me that negative sentiment is still gathering steam. But I think the rough patch we’re experiencing right now is transitory, and that after the dust settles we’ll be back to a more bullish tilt. However, I don’t know when that will happen.

So this could be the time to become aggressively defensive. I’ll be hedging some of my long positions, but looking for spots to purchase great stocks at a discount over the next couple of months.

The worst numbers seem to be coming from the global industrial sphere, so I plan to pay special attention to international issues for proper analysis. I’ve been able to get a good read on situations on the ground, in business, and in finance in Europe, which give me additional confidence in the medium-term prospects for a global economic recovery.

It's going to take consumers to get the economy rolling.
It’s going to take consumers to get the economy rolling.

Before that can happen, though, we need a rejuvenated consumer to help support economic growth. But while we’ve seen some glimmers of strength at the high-end, it’s not yet present at large, which will continue to provide a drag on growth. Amid slumping housing prices, weak job growth, and high gas prices, a great resurgence seems unlikely for now.

Not all of this is bad news, if you have the right hedges in place, and dry powder — in the form of a good-sized cash position — at your disposal. Also you should keep in mind that the non-stop flow of data from around the world can mislead the market, especially given the extraordinary issues affecting it right now — such as natural disasters and big picture issues like a potential financial crisis in a huge economic bloc.

Back in April, I acknowledged that the market could be in for a rough patch as we contended with Wall of Worry issues like jobs, the industrial economy, and potential financial system stress should we have deeper trouble in Europe.

That’s why I suggested keeping a large cash position, picking only high-quality stocks — ones that could weather near-term economic potholes, provide dividend income while we waited for real recovery, or to take advantage of other factors not yet present in financial reports.

But at the same time, I cannot deny that …

The Domestic and Global
Economies Are Growing!

Not at the pace we’d like to see, but growing nonetheless. With the way our domestic economy is evolving, we need to take a more global view in our analysis of profit expectations.

We’ve seen global effects like the job outsourcing trend, and increased international trade, which affect firms in ways that do not fit the old models. Jobless recoveries have been a more-common sight over the last few recoveries, and probably need to be factored into this one too.

We also have an important disconnect in the way that publicly-traded firms’ earnings beat estimates so soundly while smaller business saw a drop in profits and fewer opportunities to expand their operations or workforces. My read on this: We are going into an election cycle, bank credit is still tight, and small business will feel the pressure from macro concerns.

Many small businesses are holding back until politicians settle their differences.
Many small businesses are holding back until politicians settle their differences.

Once politicians’ positions on issues like health care reform and taxation become clearer, I think small business owners will be able to forecast their needs more accurately, which could unleash a positive trend from this main engine of job growth. That same political debate will help accentuate the choppy market in the near term, though.

The type of market we’re seeing right now is frequently referred to as a stock-picker’s market, but also seems to be developing a negative bias. I think it will remain so for at least the next 6-12 months. The only exception I could see would be some of the more classic defensive moves into particular sectors by institutional investors. And that will only occur if we get a downturn that lasts well into the summer or beyond.

Advertisement

That’s because many of these investors — who have been contributing far more than their share of the market’s volume during the entire run-up since March 2010 — must stay invested, so support for some stocks will be there.

My Game Plan — Deploy the Hedges,
Search for Values

I remain a bull on the markets and on the economy, but realize the headwinds are too strong to ignore. The S&P 500 has closed below an important support level. And I think we’ll see some violent rallies over the very near term, as the market fights to the upside and to the downside. So I don’t want to have too much inverse exposure while we watch for a trend to either develop, or not.

Best wishes,

Don

Read more here:
Time to Deploy the Hedges; Search for Values!

Commodities, ETF, Mutual Fund, Uncategorized

Sugar Outlook Sweetens

June 10th, 2011

Rudy MartinThe drop in sugar prices is over. In fact, prices have risen to an eight-week high after news broke that Brazilian production may fall short of expectations.

My indicators are telling me that sweet prices could get even sweeter.

Here are a few significant factors that could move this market:

India’s export threat has disappeared. For months, sugar prices have been held hostage to the idea that India would regain its position as a global sugar exporter; as India is the second-largest producer. Fearing a rise in domestic prices from a domestic crop shortfall, the country is unlikely to set a new quota until fall. The current gap is being filled by Thailand.

China needs sugar. Sugar imports by China, the second-biggest consumer after India, may advance to 2.3 million metric tons in the year ending September 30. With the export price from Brazil or Thailand about 25 cents a pound, that makes it more attractive to China, even with an import tariff of 50 percent. The higher import volume is 28 percent more than the U.S. government forecast!

The United States is short on sugar. The U.S. Department of Agriculture has projected decreased U.S. sugar supply for 2012 with lower imports offsetting higher beginning stocks and production. A potential drop in home-grown sugar coupled with government caps on imports could drive up prices, just before the peak Christmas season.

A harsh winter has caused headaches for U.S. sugar-cane and sugar-beet farmers. Record cold temperatures in December damaged sugar cane in Florida, taking about 260,000 short tons of raw sugar out of production, according to the USDA.

Currently, soil soaked by snow melt and ongoing cool and wet weather in the Midwest is delaying the planting of sugar beets, the source of more than half of U.S. sugar production. The delays could reduce yields because the sugar content of the root increases the longer it is in the ground

The European Union wants sugar too. A European Union (EU) committee recently voted to open a quota for 200,000 metric tons of duty-free sugar imports into the bloc. EU sugar prices surged to more than 1,000 euros a ton in some places earlier this year as the domestic market suffered a supply crisis that left refiners in Portugal, Greece and Poland struggling to access supplies.

Even Mexico increased import allowances, adding to signs that demand is strengthening.

Sugar’s Brazilian Factor: This pretty much puts control on sugar in the hands of the Brazilians, the primary exporters. But Brazil is not overflowing with sugar either. Conditions have been building up against the sugar crop.

The low sugar prices of 2008 and 2009, the financial crisis impact on capital, and recent unstable weather have all contributed to a financial squeeze on farmers. In turn, the investment in crops is less than it could have been.

Brazilian cane crops are older and less efficient than they should be. Sugar cane is now aged 4.2 years, on average, whereas the ideal would be 2 years of age. Ideally 20 percent to 25 percent of the new crop should be replanted. That’s not happening, so yields are lower.

Once the crop is ready, the main issues are crushing and processing. Today, with the higher use of sugar to meet Brazil’s rising need for ethanol, a larger part of the Brazilian sugarcane is being diverted into ethanol fuel production than in the past. This further diminishes sugar for food availability.

The state of S

Commodities, ETF, Mutual Fund, Uncategorized

Sugar Outlook Sweetens

June 10th, 2011

Rudy MartinThe drop in sugar prices is over. In fact, prices have risen to an eight-week high after news broke that Brazilian production may fall short of expectations.

My indicators are telling me that sweet prices could get even sweeter.

Here are a few significant factors that could move this market:

India’s export threat has disappeared. For months, sugar prices have been held hostage to the idea that India would regain its position as a global sugar exporter; as India is the second-largest producer. Fearing a rise in domestic prices from a domestic crop shortfall, the country is unlikely to set a new quota until fall. The current gap is being filled by Thailand.

China needs sugar. Sugar imports by China, the second-biggest consumer after India, may advance to 2.3 million metric tons in the year ending September 30. With the export price from Brazil or Thailand about 25 cents a pound, that makes it more attractive to China, even with an import tariff of 50 percent. The higher import volume is 28 percent more than the U.S. government forecast!

The United States is short on sugar. The U.S. Department of Agriculture has projected decreased U.S. sugar supply for 2012 with lower imports offsetting higher beginning stocks and production. A potential drop in home-grown sugar coupled with government caps on imports could drive up prices, just before the peak Christmas season.

A harsh winter has caused headaches for U.S. sugar-cane and sugar-beet farmers. Record cold temperatures in December damaged sugar cane in Florida, taking about 260,000 short tons of raw sugar out of production, according to the USDA.

Currently, soil soaked by snow melt and ongoing cool and wet weather in the Midwest is delaying the planting of sugar beets, the source of more than half of U.S. sugar production. The delays could reduce yields because the sugar content of the root increases the longer it is in the ground

The European Union wants sugar too. A European Union (EU) committee recently voted to open a quota for 200,000 metric tons of duty-free sugar imports into the bloc. EU sugar prices surged to more than 1,000 euros a ton in some places earlier this year as the domestic market suffered a supply crisis that left refiners in Portugal, Greece and Poland struggling to access supplies.

Even Mexico increased import allowances, adding to signs that demand is strengthening.

Sugar’s Brazilian Factor: This pretty much puts control on sugar in the hands of the Brazilians, the primary exporters. But Brazil is not overflowing with sugar either. Conditions have been building up against the sugar crop.

The low sugar prices of 2008 and 2009, the financial crisis impact on capital, and recent unstable weather have all contributed to a financial squeeze on farmers. In turn, the investment in crops is less than it could have been.

Brazilian cane crops are older and less efficient than they should be. Sugar cane is now aged 4.2 years, on average, whereas the ideal would be 2 years of age. Ideally 20 percent to 25 percent of the new crop should be replanted. That’s not happening, so yields are lower.

Once the crop is ready, the main issues are crushing and processing. Today, with the higher use of sugar to meet Brazil’s rising need for ethanol, a larger part of the Brazilian sugarcane is being diverted into ethanol fuel production than in the past. This further diminishes sugar for food availability.

The state of S

Commodities, ETF, Mutual Fund, Uncategorized

Extreme Weather, Food Shortages and Three ETFs to Consider

June 10th, 2011

Tony Sagami

Don’t the weather and natural disasters seem more extreme to you lately? The world has seen what seems like a wave of floods, fires, tornados, earthquakes, tsunamis and droughts.

Tornados: The tornado tragedy in Joplin, Missouri, was heartbreaking, but there have been many more. The average number of tornados over a three-year span in the United States is 1,376.

Americans, however, have suffered through 1,425 tornados over the last 36 months. Heck, April witnessed a record 600 tornados, and meteorologists are calling 2011 “The Year of the Tornado.”

Cities that have been hit this year include some of the usual locations, such as Dallas, Oklahoma City, Minneapolis, and St. Louis. But twisters have also struck unusual places, such as Philadelphia, Raleigh, and even Springfield, Mass.

Floods: It is tragic but not unusual for the Mississippi River to flood, but floods are breaking out all around North America, including parts of Utah, Montreal, Nebraska, North Dakota, Manitoba and Montana.

How bad is the flooding this year? The Federal Emergency Management Agency typically collects more than $3 billion in premiums annually but expects to end this year in the red.

This may surprise you, but even Pakistan is suffering from unprecedented flooding this year.

Last year wasn’t any better. Remember the huge flooding in Australia, and Pakistan got an unprecedented flood.

Wildfires: Summer hasn’t even arrived, but wildfires are already popping up all around the country. Firefighters in eastern and southeastern Arizona are battling two huge wildfires that have charred almost 200 square miles of brush and tinder. Texas, Colorado, Georgia, New Mexico, and even Alaska are battling smaller but dangerous wildfires.

In northern Alberta, 115 fires whipped by 60 mph winds have set 74,000 acres ablaze.

Last year was no picnic either. Russia was hammered with wildfires last summer that severely reduced the global supply of wheat.

Drought: Texas, Oklahoma and New Mexico are being ravaged by droughts. A whopping 50.6% of Texas has been declared to be in drought stage due to a record low spring rainfall. Only 1-1/2 to 1-3/4 inches of rain fell across the state, which makes the March-May spring period the driest on record.

The National Weather Service has classified South Florida as D4 drought stage, or the “exceptional drought” stage.

This is the first time South Florida has been placed in the “exceptional drought” category in the 80 years since the National Weather Service started tracking droughts.

The Amazon is in its second drought in four years. Typically, the Amazon has a once-in-a-century drought.

Droughts are not just a North American problem. China is suffering from one of the worst droughts in its long history.

The Yangtze River basin, which is Asia’s biggest river and supports 400 million Chinese, is filled each year by monsoon rains that flood the region each spring. But the rains did not come as expected this year, causing the worst drought in 50 years. The Yangtze River has only received half of its usual rainfall. Almost every province in the region has reported severe drought conditions.

  • Jiangxi Province’s Poyang Lake, China’s largest freshwater lake, has shrunk by two-thirds and is the smallest size since satellite recording began. Another huge Yangtze-generated freshwater lake, Hong Lake, has gone dry.
  • More than 2 million acres of farmland don’t have enough water to grow crops.
  • Shanghai, which is located at the mouth of the Yangtze, has seen its drinking water compromised from salt because the altitude of Yangtze is below sea level.

The consequences of the drought include water shortages, a drop in electricity production, crop losses, and transportation disruptions.

Drinking water: Chinese officials have declared more than 1,300 lakes to be “dead,” which means they are out of use for irrigation and drinking supply. More than 1 million people and 380,000 livestock are short of drinking water, according to the Office of State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters.

Transportation: Water levels are so low in some parts of the Yangtze and its tributaries that thousands of boats have been stranded, forcing the authorities to halt shipping along many parts of the river.

Electricity shortages: The world’s second-largest steel producer Shanghai Baosteel has received a government notice that its electricity used for production will be restricted between June and September. Many manufacturers in Zhejiang Province have been forced to take two days of production off every week.

“If the drought continues, dams in the province will run out of water to generate electricity,” said Hu Xiaofei of Anhui Electric Power. The company estimates that 2011 will have the most severe power shortfall since 2004.

Food crops: But the drought’s biggest impact will be felt by China’s farmers. Without water crops won’t grow and will only harvest a fraction of normal production. Areas affected are among China’s major producers of rice and wheat, so a poor harvest will translate into higher prices.

Food shortages have plagued the world since the dawn of man. Even today a large number of the world’s population goes to bed hungry each night. Josette Sheeran, the executive director of the United Nations World Food Programme, calls it the “silent tsunami.”

What’s more disturbing is the problem is getting worse. The Worldwatch Institute estimates that 1.02 billion people were “undernourished” in 2009, a 12% increase over the previous year. ONE OUT OF EVERY SIX PEOPLE ON EARTH IS UNDERNOURISHED.

I don’t know what it is like to go to sleep on an empty stomach, but I can imagine how desperate I would be to feed my children if we ever faced a food emergency.

Food prices have jumped to an all-time high, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). In fact, the FAO food index, which is comprised of 55 various food products, is higher today than it was when food riots broke out in 2008.

“We are entering a danger territory. There is still room for prices to go up much higher,” said Abdolreza Abbassian, the chief economist at the FAO.

Feeding that growing number of mouths is already big business, but it is going to get much bigger as the demand for better diets and more protein increases. I believe that you’ve only seen the early stages of an agricultural boom, and that it will be one of the most profitable sectors you can invest in.

There are three exchange traded funds to consider. One such fund is the Global X Farming ETF (BARN), which launched last week and has some special appeal to me because of its heavy Asian weighting. BARN gives investors a solid choice because it only has 31% of its assets in U.S. stocks.

Here’s a geographical breakdown of the fund followed by two other agriculture ETFs to consider:

  • United States, 31.64%
  • Singapore, 15.06%
  • Malaysia, 12.03%
  • China, 7%
  • United Kingdom, 5.94%
  • Japan, 5.37%
  • Canada, 4.75%
  • Netherlands, 3.35%
  • Brazil, 3.35%

PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (DBA) is more of a pure food commodity play as it invests in a basket of agricultural futures such as corn, soybeans, sugar, cattle, cocoa, coffee, cotton, lean hogs and wheat.

Market Vectors Agribusiness (MOO) invests in agricultural commodity producers such as Deere & Company, Potash and Archer Daniels Midland.

As always, you need to do your homework and decide whether any of these securities are appropriate for your personal situation and financial goals.

Lastly, since timing is everything when it comes to investing, you should wait for these securities to go on sale before jumping in or wait for my buy signal in Asia Stock Alert.

Best wishes,

Tony

Tony Sagami is the editor of Asia Stock Alert, a monthly newsletter with a mission to help you profit from booming Asian economies with companies the Wall Street crowd ignores. One of the most experienced research analysts in the industry, Tony follows a “boots-on-the-ground” approach for getting his market insights by traveling throughout Asia. Each month, he brings members profit-packed opportunities. Plus, Tony lets you know when to buy, how much to pay, and when to lock in those profits. For more information on Asia Stock Alert, click here.

Read more here:
Extreme Weather, Food Shortages and Three ETFs to Consider

Commodities, ETF, Mutual Fund, Uncategorized

Steroids Wearing Off! Key Sectors Slumping! Urgent Action Required!

June 10th, 2011

Mike LarsonI’ve been a huge football fan for years. I started watching Dallas Cowboys games when I was five because I loved the star on the team’s helmets. I cheered for the Miami Dolphins because I live in South Florida. And then after I went to college in Boston, I adopted the New England Patriots as my team — an affiliation that carries to this day.

One thing I’ve always hated to see was when the game would be corrupted by steroids. I remember when Lyle Alzado of the Los Angeles Raiders struck fear into the hearts of opposing teams in the early 1980s. But it turned out his aggressive style of play and incredible strength turned out to stem largely from drug use. He died a broken man of brain cancer at 43.

It’s not just football, either. How many baseball greats are now turning out to be nothing more than juiced-up pretenders? Heck, even cycling great Lance Armstrong is under a cloud today due to doping allegations made by former teammates.

It’s truly sad, and in the end, what’s the point? Why try to get an unfair edge if it just ends up killing you in the end? Or if your medals and rings and trophies just get stripped away?

Why am I bringing this up?

Because we’re seeing the same, sorry thing happen here to the U.S. economy! Washington has been trying to pump the economy full of easy money for the better part of two years now. Yet it hasn’t worked! And despite all that, the addicts on Wall Street are once again jonesing for another hit!

What’s going to happen in the markets as a result? What does this mean for you? And most importantly, what can you DO about it? Here’s my take …

Why You Can’t Keep Propping
up an Ailing “Player” Forever

Beginning in March 2009 and continuing all the way through present day, Washington has been trying to juice the economy. It began with the bogus “stress tests.” They helped spike the value of bank and real estate stocks, allowing companies to sell equity and buy themselves some time.

We were told the trillions in stimulus programs would cure our economic woes.
We were told the trillions in stimulus programs would cure our economic woes.

It continued with the $1.25 trillion QE1 program … the $600 billion QE2 boondoggle … payroll tax cuts … the HAMP mortgage modification effort … an almost-$900 billion economic stimulus bill … and more.

We were told these would drive unemployment down substantially.

We were told these would prevent a double-dip in housing.

We were told these efforts would — for once and for all — plug the massive balance sheet holes in the banking system.

We were told there would be virtually no negative side effects.

And we were told months ago that the economy had entered a self-sustaining, healthy recovery.

But Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner … Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke … President Obama’s economic advisors … and virtually all the major Wall Street economists got it wrong. All we did was pump the economy up with monetary steroids — buying us some short-term performance at the cost of long-term health.

We’re now $14.3 trillion in debt, and Geithner is raiding every government account he can to keep us under the debt ceiling. Plus, we’re running up a trillion-dollar deficit for the third straight year, something no country in the history of the world has ever done.

And what do we have to show for it?

  • A confirmed double-dip in housing,
  • A rising cost of living,
  • A renewed jobs market threat, with unemployed Americans taking a record-long amount of time to find work,
  • And a fresh roll over in bank stocks, with companies like Bank of America giving up every penny of gains they’ve made in the last two years.
Advertisement

Wall Street’s Plea: “Brother, Can
You Spare Some More QE?”

Bottom line: The print, borrow, spend program is NOT working! Yet in the wake of the dismal May jobs report, Wall Street is back to begging Helicopter Ben Bernanke for more free money! And when they don’t get it, like some spoiled kid, they take their toys and go home.

On Tuesday, the Fed chairman offered no hint that QE3 would be forthcoming.
On Tuesday, the Fed chairman offered no hint that QE3 would be forthcoming.

Just witness what happened late Tuesday …

Bernanke gave a speech on the economic outlook at the International Monetary Conference in Atlanta. He said the economy appeared to be weakening again, but failed to promise QE3. Result? Stocks rolled over into the close.

Meanwhile, the same economic “experts” like Paul Krugman who told us that if we just borrowed, printed and spent enough money, everything would be fine, are still at it. They’re asking for even more of the same medicine that didn’t work in the past … twice!

Look folks, the plain, unvarnished truth is that our economy needs a long period of convalescence to heal. We need to work off the massive excesses built up during the tech stock and real estate bubbles. All the steroids in the world won’t do the trick!

Fortunately, you CAN take steps to protect yourself. You can avoid losing money if stocks and the economy sink. In fact, you can turn lemons into lemonade and rack up profits from fading sectors like real estate, banking, consumer durables, and more.

That’s what I’m already helping my subscribers do — and if you’d like to join them for just $2.73 per day, click here to learn more.

Your other option?

Sit by and do nothing while Washington and Wall Street sink further into the debt, deficit, and downturn abyss. I trust that sounds as unattractive an option to you as it does to me.

Until next time,

Mike

Read more here:
Steroids Wearing Off! Key Sectors Slumping! Urgent Action Required!

Commodities, ETF, Mutual Fund, Real Estate, Uncategorized

The Commodity Summer Slump

June 9th, 2011

Larry Edelson

Heading into the June to August period, many commodity markets should experience their typical seasonal summer weakness. That means possible pullbacks in many commodities, including gold, silver, and oil.

Don’t be phased by it. It will be nothing more than a healthy pullback that will lead to substantially higher prices for nearly all tangible assets and resources over the next few years.

For one thing, the sovereign debt is clearly picking up momentum. Not only in Europe, but also in the United States where the debt ceiling, despite all the political jaw-boning, will likely be increased, and where the Federal Reserve will continue to print money to keep the debt juggernaut going.

For another, the U.S. dollar remains weak at the knees, hardly able to bounce, and terribly weak against the Swiss franc, the Australian and Canadian dollars, and even weak against the Euro.

And for yet another, Asia’s economies continue to build momentum for further growth. Take it from me, here on the front lines in Asia; I see no evidence of slowdowns whatsoever, whether it be here in Thailand, or Singapore, China, Indonesia or Malaysia.

The sum total of Asia’s growth means rising demand for commodities on a long-term basis — as nearly 62% the world’s population is Asian. That’s three out of every five people in the world.

Plus, we are already beginning to see the evidence of supply shortages in select commodities, from peaking oil supplies, to strains on agriculturals, to supply constraints in iron ore, copper, and more.

All of this is why one should not be very concerned about any commodity weakness that may develop in the short term.

So that you keep your eye on the long-term view, today I am going to reveal my long-term price targets for commodities, which were first published, of course, for members of my Real Wealth Report in last month’s issue.

But I also want you to keep fully in mind that you will not see such prices for a while. All of my work indicates that the extreme inflation that so many analysts now embrace and expect to see almost immediately will not come right away.

Indeed, I do not see inflation getting out of control until at least 2015.

Between now and then, we will continue to see massive swings in all markets, and oscillations between deflationary and inflationary psychology. We will also see some markets, assets classes and sectors inflate, while others crash and burn. It will be a wild ride, to say the least.

Three additional key points to keep in mind …

First, there will be another round of massive money printing from the Federal Reserve. There’s no question about it. Only the timing. The economy is showing signs of weakness and the only real buyer of U.S. debt right now — and in the future — is likely to be the Fed.

Second, the inflation you will see building over the next few years will be different from past inflations. The chief difference is that we will not see massive wage inflation.

There will be some wage inflation, but the bulk of the inflation I see going forward will stem — unequivocally — from dollar devaluation … from

Commodities, ETF, Mutual Fund, Uncategorized

The Commodity Summer Slump

June 9th, 2011

Larry Edelson

Heading into the June to August period, many commodity markets should experience their typical seasonal summer weakness. That means possible pullbacks in many commodities, including gold, silver, and oil.

Don’t be phased by it. It will be nothing more than a healthy pullback that will lead to substantially higher prices for nearly all tangible assets and resources over the next few years.

For one thing, the sovereign debt is clearly picking up momentum. Not only in Europe, but also in the United States where the debt ceiling, despite all the political jaw-boning, will likely be increased, and where the Federal Reserve will continue to print money to keep the debt juggernaut going.

For another, the U.S. dollar remains weak at the knees, hardly able to bounce, and terribly weak against the Swiss franc, the Australian and Canadian dollars, and even weak against the Euro.

And for yet another, Asia’s economies continue to build momentum for further growth. Take it from me, here on the front lines in Asia; I see no evidence of slowdowns whatsoever, whether it be here in Thailand, or Singapore, China, Indonesia or Malaysia.

The sum total of Asia’s growth means rising demand for commodities on a long-term basis — as nearly 62% the world’s population is Asian. That’s three out of every five people in the world.

Plus, we are already beginning to see the evidence of supply shortages in select commodities, from peaking oil supplies, to strains on agriculturals, to supply constraints in iron ore, copper, and more.

All of this is why one should not be very concerned about any commodity weakness that may develop in the short term.

So that you keep your eye on the long-term view, today I am going to reveal my long-term price targets for commodities, which were first published, of course, for members of my Real Wealth Report in last month’s issue.

But I also want you to keep fully in mind that you will not see such prices for a while. All of my work indicates that the extreme inflation that so many analysts now embrace and expect to see almost immediately will not come right away.

Indeed, I do not see inflation getting out of control until at least 2015.

Between now and then, we will continue to see massive swings in all markets, and oscillations between deflationary and inflationary psychology. We will also see some markets, assets classes and sectors inflate, while others crash and burn. It will be a wild ride, to say the least.

Three additional key points to keep in mind …

First, there will be another round of massive money printing from the Federal Reserve. There’s no question about it. Only the timing. The economy is showing signs of weakness and the only real buyer of U.S. debt right now — and in the future — is likely to be the Fed.

Second, the inflation you will see building over the next few years will be different from past inflations. The chief difference is that we will not see massive wage inflation.

There will be some wage inflation, but the bulk of the inflation I see going forward will stem — unequivocally — from dollar devaluation … from

Commodities, ETF, Mutual Fund, Uncategorized